What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-06-13 00:30

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

36%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Vasco DA Gama

Away

Prediction Summary

54%

27%

19%

Under 2.5

64%

BTTS No

61%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Vasco DA Gama (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match1.79

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Vasco DA Gama

LLWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 58%

58% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Vasco DA Gama averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength

64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Over 2.5

36%

BTTS Yes

39%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 2 - 0 Vasco DA Gama Home

Jun 2025 Sao Paulo 1 - 3 Vasco DA Gama Away

Oct 2024 Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Vasco DA Gama Home

Jun 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 1 - 4 Vasco DA Gama Away

Oct 2023 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 0 Vasco DA Gama Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Vasco DA Gama — winless run (away)4

Vasco DA Gama — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)54%

Draw (X)27%

Vasco DA Gama Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 58%

58% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 42%

42% -1.5 68%

89% -2.5 79%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 95%

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Vasco DA Gama — scored (away)1.26

Vasco DA Gama — conceded (away)1.79

Model expected combined goals2.13

Both Teams To Score

Yes39%

No61%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.545%

Under 9.555%

Over 10.532%

Under 10.568%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Vasco DA Gama (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Vasco DA Gama

8 12 7 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Vasco DA Gama (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Vasco DA Gama — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Vasco DA Gama — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05

Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target74%

+1.5 On Target38%

Philippe Coutinho

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

P. Vegetti

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target17%

A. Gómez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target19%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Vasco DA Gama xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 54.58%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama

83.71% Pass accuracy 86.47%

438.63 Passes per match 481

0.21 Goals prevented -0.15

14.24 Fouls committed 13.18

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 3

1.47 Offsides 0.81

17.21 Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights