What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-09 21:30

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

31%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Vitoria

Away

Prediction Summary

45%

31%

25%

Under 2.5

69%

BTTS No

63%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Vitoria (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match1.95

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Vitoria

WLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 47%

58% +1.5 16%

11% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Vitoria averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength

69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Over 2.5

31%

BTTS Yes

37%

Head-to-Head last 4

Dec 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 1 Vitoria Away

Aug 2025 Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Vitoria Home

Aug 2024 Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Vitoria Home

May 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 3 - 1 Vitoria Home

In the last 4 meetings, Sao Paulo won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Vitoria — winless run (away)1

Vitoria — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)45%

Draw (X)31%

Vitoria Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 47%

58% +1.5 16%

11% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 53%

42% -1.5 84%

89% -2.5 89%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Vitoria — scored (away)0.74

Vitoria — conceded (away)1.95

Model expected combined goals1.94

Both Teams To Score

Yes37%

No63%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Vitoria — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.595%

Under 5.55%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.555%

Under 8.545%

Over 9.545%

Under 9.555%

Over 10.529%

Under 10.571%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Vitoria (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Vitoria

9 10 12 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.592%

Under 2.58%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Vitoria (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Vitoria — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Vitoria — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Vitoria

Inside the box6.95

Outside the box4.61

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Vitoria

Wellington Rato

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target20%

Matheuzinho

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target10%

Aitor Cantalapiedra

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target16%

Renato Kayzer

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Erick

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Vitoria xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 41.26%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

83.71% Pass accuracy 78.61%

438.63 Passes per match 324.47

0.21 Goals prevented -0.04

14.24 Fouls committed 14.61

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 3.92

1.47 Offsides 1.83

17.21 Tackles per match 14.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Vitoria with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights