What markets are included in the Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-10-11 16:30

Sassuolo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

AC Milan

Away

Prediction Summary

27%

46%

+2.5 Goals

44%

BTTS

49%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sassuolo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.32

Goals conceded / match1.37

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

AC Milan (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sassuolo

LLLWD

AC Milan

LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 47%

16% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sassuolo averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while AC Milan averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

27%

Draw

27%

Away Win

46%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Sassuolo 2 - 0 AC Milan Home

Dec 2025 Sassuolo(A) 2 - 2 AC Milan Draw

Apr 2024 Sassuolo 3 - 3 AC Milan Draw

Dec 2023 Sassuolo(A) 0 - 1 AC Milan Away

Jan 2023 Sassuolo(A) 5 - 2 AC Milan Home

In the last 5 meetings, Sassuolo won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Sassuolo — unbeaten run (home)0

Sassuolo — scoring streak (home)4

AC Milan — winless run (away)0

AC Milan — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sassuolo Win (1)27%

Draw (X)27%

AC Milan Win (2)46%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 47%

16% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 21%

53% -1.5 53%

84% -2.5 79%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Sassuolo vs AC Milan — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sassuolo — scored (home)1.32

Sassuolo — conceded (home)1.37

AC Milan — scored (away)1.47

AC Milan — conceded (away)0.74

Model expected combined goals2.45

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

Sassuolo — BTTS matches (home)47%

AC Milan — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.543%

Under 9.557%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sassuolo (home)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.0

AC Milan (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against4.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sassuolo

11 5 12 10 2

AC Milan

4 5 4 8 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.589%

Under 1.511%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Sassuolo (home)

For2.1

AC Milan (away)

For1.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.571%

Under 19.529%

Over 22.557%

Under 22.543%

Over 25.543%

Under 25.557%

Expected total shots24.79

Sassuolo

Shots Over 9.570%

Shots Over 11.553%

Shots Over 13.538%

Expected shots12.41

On Target Over 3.555%

On Target Over 4.538%

On Target Over 5.524%

Expected on target4.03

AC Milan

Shots Over 9.569%

Shots Over 11.553%

Shots Over 13.537%

Expected shots12.38

On Target Over 3.559%

On Target Over 4.542%

On Target Over 5.528%

Expected on target4.31

Shots per Game

Sassuolo — total shots (home)10.7

AC Milan — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Sassuolo — on target (home)3.7

AC Milan — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sassuolo

Inside the box7

Outside the box3.66

AC Milan

Inside the box9.16

Outside the box4.08

Player Shots Sassuolo

A. Pinamonti

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target19%

D. Berardi

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target23%

A. Laurienté

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target16%

K. Thorstvedt

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target3%

C. Volpato

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots AC Milan

C. Pulišić

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rafael Leão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target24%

S. Giménez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target13%

Y. Fofana

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target0%

C. Nkunku

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sassuolo xG (home)1.12

AC Milan xG (away)1.59

Average Possession

46.13% Possession 51.84%

Team Comparison Sassuolo vs AC Milan

82.16% Pass accuracy 86.74%

401.45 Passes per match 483.74

0.01 Goals prevented 0.2

11.97 Fouls committed 10.11

3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.95

1.89 Offsides 1.92

13.66 Tackles per match 14.5

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction analysis

Review Sassuolo vs AC Milan with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights