Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: SC Braga vs Benfica

SC Braga vs Benfica prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-17 17:00
SC Braga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Benfica
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
24%
2
39%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

SC Braga (Home)

Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%

Benfica (Away)

Goals scored / match1.88
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

SC Braga
DLDDW
Benfica
DDWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 88%
59% +1.5 59%
29% +2.5 35%
12% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
59% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.

SC Braga averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Benfica averages 1.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
24%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 SC Braga(A) 2 - 2 Benfica Draw
Jan 2026 SC Braga(A) 3 - 1 Benfica Home
Dec 2025 SC Braga 2 - 2 Benfica Draw
May 2025 SC Braga 1 - 1 Benfica Draw
Feb 2025 SC Braga(A) 0 - 1 Benfica Away

In the last 5 meetings, SC Braga won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

SC Braga — unbeaten run (home)8
SC Braga — scoring streak (home)14
Benfica — winless run (away)1
Benfica — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

SC Braga Win (1)36%
Draw (X)24%
Benfica Win (2)39%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 88%
59% +1.5 59%
29% +2.5 35%
12% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 12%
41% -1.5 41%
71% -2.5 65%
88% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

SC Braga vs Benfica — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

SC Braga — scored (home)1.94
SC Braga — conceded (home)1.12
Benfica — scored (away)1.88
Benfica — conceded (away)0.94
Model expected combined goals3

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

SC Braga — BTTS matches (home)59%
Benfica — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

SC Braga (home)

Corners for7.0
Corners against3.1

Benfica (away)

Corners for6.4
Corners against2.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

SC Braga
3 15 8 9 12
Benfica
10 14 6 8 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

SC Braga (home)

For1.9

Benfica (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

SC Braga — total shots (home)14.8
Benfica — total shots (away)14.7

Shots on Target

SC Braga — on target (home)5.6
Benfica — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

SC Braga

Inside the box8.97
Outside the box4.71

Benfica

Inside the box10.65
Outside the box6.21

Player Shots SC Braga

Bruma
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target24%
Gabri Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Zalazar
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target16%
Roger Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. El Ouazzani
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%

Player Shots Benfica

A. Belotti
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target21%
Tiago Gouveia
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
Z. Amdouni
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Á. Di María
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target20%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

SC Braga xG (home)1.5
Benfica xG (away)2.23

Average Possession

56.94% Possession 58.38%

Team Comparison SC Braga vs Benfica

82.91% Pass accuracy 84.06%
500.94 Passes per match 501.68
0.15 Goals prevented -0.07
14.21 Fouls committed 11.76
2.79 Goalkeeper saves 2.29
2 Offsides 3.11
16.74 Tackles per match 18.65

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

SC Braga vs Benfica prediction analysis

Review SC Braga vs Benfica with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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