Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: SC Braga vs Moreirense

SC Braga vs Moreirense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-11-09 20:30
SC Braga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Moreirense
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
24%
2
20%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

SC Braga (Home)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate53%

Moreirense (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

SC Braga
DDDLW
Moreirense
DLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 65%
65% +1.5 29%
29% +2.5 6%
12% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Medium.

SC Braga averages 2 goals scored at home, while Moreirense averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
24%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 SC Braga(A) 1 - 0 Moreirense Home
Nov 2025 SC Braga 2 - 1 Moreirense Home
Feb 2025 SC Braga(A) 2 - 1 Moreirense Home
Aug 2024 SC Braga 3 - 1 Moreirense Home
Feb 2024 SC Braga 1 - 0 Moreirense Home

In the last 5 meetings, SC Braga won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

SC Braga — unbeaten run (home)4
SC Braga — scoring streak (home)13
Moreirense — winless run (away)5
Moreirense — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

SC Braga Win (1)56%
Draw (X)24%
Moreirense Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 65%
65% +1.5 29%
29% +2.5 6%
12% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 35%
35% -1.5 71%
71% -2.5 94%
88% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

SC Braga vs Moreirense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

SC Braga — scored (home)2
SC Braga — conceded (home)1.06
Moreirense — scored (away)1
Moreirense — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.6

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

SC Braga — BTTS matches (home)53%
Moreirense — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.571%
Under 6.529%
Over 7.559%
Under 7.541%
Over 8.538%
Under 8.562%
Over 9.529%
Under 9.571%
Over 10.518%
Under 10.582%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

SC Braga (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.1

Moreirense (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

SC Braga
9 5 9 10 8
Moreirense
6 11 5 9 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

SC Braga (home)

For2.0

Moreirense (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

SC Braga — total shots (home)11.0
Moreirense — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

SC Braga — on target (home)4.4
Moreirense — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

SC Braga

Inside the box7.79
Outside the box3.85

Moreirense

Inside the box5.26
Outside the box3.65

Player Shots SC Braga

Roger Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target50%
Ricardo Horta
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target21%
R. Zalazar
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target21%
Pau Victor
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. El Ouazzani
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Moreirense

Guilherme Schettine
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target40%
Bernardo Martins
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Alan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. John
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
Diogo Travassos
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

SC Braga xG (home)1.69
Moreirense xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

62.85% Possession 49.56%

Team Comparison SC Braga vs Moreirense

86.88% Pass accuracy 82.47%
603.32 Passes per match 430.18
0 Goals prevented -0.01
11.74 Fouls committed 13.94
2.24 Goalkeeper saves 3.09
1.34 Offsides 1.23
13.59 Tackles per match 14.21

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

SC Braga vs Moreirense prediction analysis

Review SC Braga vs Moreirense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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