What markets are included in the SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-11-30 18:30

SC Freiburg

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

62%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

FSV Mainz 05

Away

Prediction Summary

47%

23%

30%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

63%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

SC Freiburg (Home)

Goals scored / match1.94

Goals conceded / match1.29

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate82%

FSV Mainz 05 (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.65

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

SC Freiburg

WLDLW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 76%

65% +1.5 47%

24% +2.5 6%

12% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

82% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

SC Freiburg averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

47%

Draw

23%

Away Win

30%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

63%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 SC Freiburg(A) 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Home

Nov 2025 SC Freiburg 4 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Home

Mar 2025 SC Freiburg(A) 2 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 Draw

Nov 2024 SC Freiburg 0 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Draw

Apr 2024 SC Freiburg 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 Draw

In the last 5 meetings, SC Freiburg won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

SC Freiburg — unbeaten run (home)3

SC Freiburg — scoring streak (home)4

FSV Mainz 05 — winless run (away)0

FSV Mainz 05 — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

SC Freiburg Win (1)47%

Draw (X)23%

FSV Mainz 05 Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 76%

65% +1.5 47%

24% +2.5 6%

12% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 24%

35% -1.5 53%

76% -2.5 94%

88% -3.5 94%

100% -4.5 100%

SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

SC Freiburg — scored (home)1.94

SC Freiburg — conceded (home)1.29

FSV Mainz 05 — scored (away)1.35

FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (away)1.65

Model expected combined goals3.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%

No37%

Rate per Team

SC Freiburg — BTTS matches (home)82%

FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)73.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.588%

Under 4.512%

Over 5.585%

Under 5.515%

Over 6.577%

Under 6.523%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.550%

Under 8.550%

Over 9.538%

Under 9.562%

Over 10.530%

Under 10.570%

Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

SC Freiburg (home)

Corners for4.5

Corners against3.8

FSV Mainz 05 (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

SC Freiburg

9 5 8 6 3

FSV Mainz 05

6 8 14 15 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.588%

Under 1.512%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

SC Freiburg (home)

For1.5

FSV Mainz 05 (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

SC Freiburg — total shots (home)14.2

FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (away)10.5

Shots on Target

SC Freiburg — on target (home)5.1

FSV Mainz 05 — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

SC Freiburg

Inside the box8.38

Outside the box3.85

FSV Mainz 05

Inside the box9.21

Outside the box2.85

Player Shots SC Freiburg

I. Matanović

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target19%

Y. Suzuki

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target16%

J. Beste

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target7%

J. Manzambi

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target4%

L. Höler

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target32%

S. Becker

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target29%

S. Katompa Mvumpa

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target38%

N. Amiri

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target19%

B. Hollerbach

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

SC Freiburg xG (home)1.43

FSV Mainz 05 xG (away)1.61

Average Possession

48% Possession 43.97%

Team Comparison SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05

80.06% Pass accuracy 74.56%

406.47 Passes per match 370.74

-0.1 Goals prevented 0.33

9.35 Fouls committed 10.97

3 Goalkeeper saves 3.41

2.06 Offsides 2.39

14.35 Tackles per match 15.35

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction analysis

Review SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights