Prediction Analysis: SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-09-05
13:30
SC Paderborn 07
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
68%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
SC Freiburg
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
22%
2
42%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
SC Paderborn 07 (Home)
Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%
SC Freiburg (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match2.06
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
SC Paderborn 07
WD
SC Freiburg
WLDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
53%
100%
+1.5
35%
0%
+2.5
12%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
100%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 68%. Model confidence is Medium.
SC Paderborn 07 averages 2 goals scored at home, while SC Freiburg averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
22%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
68%
Head-to-Head last 3
Nov 2023
SC Paderborn 07(A)
3 - 1
SC Freiburg
Home
Jan 2020
SC Paderborn 07(A)
2 - 0
SC Freiburg
Home
Aug 2019
SC Paderborn 07
1 - 3
SC Freiburg
Away
In the last 3 meetings, SC Paderborn 07 won 2, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
SC Paderborn 07 — unbeaten run (home)1
SC Paderborn 07 — scoring streak (home)1
SC Freiburg — winless run (away)2
SC Freiburg — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
SC Paderborn 07 Win (1)35%
Draw (X)22%
SC Freiburg Win (2)42%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
53%
100%
+1.5
35%
0%
+2.5
12%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
47%
0%
-1.5
65%
100%
-2.5
88%
100%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
100%
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
SC Paderborn 07 — scored (home)2
SC Paderborn 07 — conceded (home)1
SC Freiburg — scored (away)1.06
SC Freiburg — conceded (away)2.06
Model expected combined goals3.5
Both Teams To Score
Yes68%
No32%
Rate per Team
SC Paderborn 07 — BTTS matches (home)100%
SC Freiburg — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)70.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
SC Paderborn 07 (home)
Corners for19.0
Corners against2.0
SC Freiburg (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
SC Paderborn 07
5
21
SC Freiburg
9
5
8
6
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.3
Yellow Cards per Team
SC Paderborn 07 (home)
For3.0
SC Freiburg (away)
For1.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.567%
Under 22.533%
Over 25.554%
Under 25.546%
Expected total shots27.18
SC Paderborn 07
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.577%
Shots Over 13.563%
Expected shots16.03
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.559%
On Target Over 5.545%
Expected on target5.43
SC Freiburg
Shots Over 9.561%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.14
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.94
Shots per Game
SC Paderborn 07 — total shots (home)39.0
SC Freiburg — total shots (away)10.2
Shots on Target
SC Paderborn 07 — on target (home)10.0
SC Freiburg — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
SC Paderborn 07
Inside the box14.5
Outside the box6
SC Freiburg
Inside the box8.38
Outside the box3.85
Player Shots SC Paderborn 07
Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.
Player Shots SC Freiburg
I. Matanović
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target19%
Y. Suzuki
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Beste
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Manzambi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target4%
L. Höler
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Paderborn 07 xG (home)0
SC Freiburg xG (away)1.43
Average Possession
52%
Possession
48%
Team Comparison SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
80.5%
Pass accuracy
80.06%
501.5
Passes per match
406.47
0
Goals prevented
-0.1
14
Fouls committed
9.35
4.5
Goalkeeper saves
3
0
Offsides
2.06
17
Tackles per match
14.35
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction and preview
Preview SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights