Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2026-08-15 19:30
Sevilla
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Rayo Vallecano
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
27%
2
30%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Sevilla (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%

Rayo Vallecano (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sevilla
LLWWW
Rayo Vallecano
WWDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 26%
11% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Sevilla averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Rayo Vallecano averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Sevilla 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano Draw
Sep 2025 Sevilla(A) 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano Home
Mar 2025 Sevilla(A) 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano Draw
Nov 2024 Sevilla 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano Home
Feb 2024 Sevilla(A) 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano Home

In the last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Sevilla — unbeaten run (home)0
Sevilla — scoring streak (home)0
Rayo Vallecano — winless run (away)0
Rayo Vallecano — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sevilla Win (1)44%
Draw (X)27%
Rayo Vallecano Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 26%
11% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 47%
68% -1.5 74%
89% -2.5 89%
89% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sevilla — scored (home)1.26
Sevilla — conceded (home)1.32
Rayo Vallecano — scored (away)0.89
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Sevilla — BTTS matches (home)58%
Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sevilla (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against3.7

Rayo Vallecano (away)

Corners for4.7
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sevilla
6 10 10 8 7
Rayo Vallecano
5 14 6 10 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Sevilla (home)

For3.1

Rayo Vallecano (away)

For3.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.567%
Under 19.533%
Over 22.553%
Under 22.547%
Over 25.539%
Under 25.561%
Expected total shots24.03

Sevilla

Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.558%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.13
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.43

Rayo Vallecano

Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.90
On Target Over 3.547%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.62

Shots per Game

Sevilla — total shots (home)12.1
Rayo Vallecano — total shots (away)11.5

Shots on Target

Sevilla — on target (home)3.9
Rayo Vallecano — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sevilla

Inside the box7.18
Outside the box4.32

Rayo Vallecano

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box6.21

Player Shots Sevilla

A. Adams
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target22%
Alfon González
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
N. Maupay
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target8%
Isaac
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Oso
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Rayo Vallecano

Jorge de Frutos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target17%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ilias Akhomach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
Isi Palazón
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sevilla xG (home)1.03
Rayo Vallecano xG (away)1.39

Average Possession

50.92% Possession 53.45%

Team Comparison Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

80% Pass accuracy 81.66%
405.13 Passes per match 417.32
0.02 Goals prevented 0.08
14.76 Fouls committed 13.45
2.63 Goalkeeper saves 2.95
2.76 Offsides 2.14
18.08 Tackles per match 18.18

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano prediction analysis

Review Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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