Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-08-15 16:30
Sheffield Utd
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Birmingham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Sheffield Utd (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.43
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate70%

Birmingham (Away)

Goals scored / match0.78
Goals conceded / match1.48
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate48%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sheffield Utd
WLLWW
Birmingham
DWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

87% +0.5 61%
43% +1.5 17%
30% +2.5 0%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
70% BTTS 48%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Sheffield Utd averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while Birmingham averages 0.78 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
25%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Sheffield Utd(A) 1 - 1 Birmingham Draw
Dec 2025 Sheffield Utd 3 - 0 Birmingham Home
Aug 2025 Sheffield Utd(A) 1 - 2 Birmingham Away
May 2023 Sheffield Utd(A) 2 - 1 Birmingham Home
Oct 2022 Sheffield Utd 1 - 1 Birmingham Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Sheffield Utd won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Sheffield Utd — unbeaten run (home)0
Sheffield Utd — scoring streak (home)16
Birmingham — winless run (away)6
Birmingham — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sheffield Utd Win (1)48%
Draw (X)25%
Birmingham Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

87% +0.5 61%
43% +1.5 17%
30% +2.5 0%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

13% -0.5 39%
57% -1.5 83%
70% -2.5 100%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sheffield Utd — scored (home)1.65
Sheffield Utd — conceded (home)1.43
Birmingham — scored (away)0.78
Birmingham — conceded (away)1.48
Model expected combined goals2.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Sheffield Utd — BTTS matches (home)70%
Birmingham — BTTS matches (away)48%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sheffield Utd (home)

Corners for7.5
Corners against4.2

Birmingham (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sheffield Utd
19 13 6 15 10
Birmingham
9 8 6 11 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Sheffield Utd (home)

For1.5

Birmingham (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.58

Sheffield Utd

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.03
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.63

Birmingham

Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.523%
Expected shots10.55
On Target Over 3.543%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.515%
Expected on target3.38

Shots per Game

Sheffield Utd — total shots (home)15.4
Birmingham — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Sheffield Utd — on target (home)4.8
Birmingham — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sheffield Utd

Inside the box9.07
Outside the box4.33

Birmingham

Inside the box8.76
Outside the box4.85

Player Shots Sheffield Utd

P. Bamford
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target82%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Hamer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. O'Hare
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
T. Cannon
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Brooks
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Birmingham

M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Stansfield
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target24%
Carlos Vicente
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Gray
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sheffield Utd xG (home)1.57
Birmingham xG (away)1.36

Average Possession

52.33% Possession 53.74%

Team Comparison Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham

76.57% Pass accuracy 77.15%
415.35 Passes per match 423.72
-0.12 Goals prevented -0.06
10.59 Fouls committed 11.67
2.76 Goalkeeper saves 2.4
2.04 Offsides 1.8
15.43 Tackles per match 14.17

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham prediction analysis

Review Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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