Prediction Analysis: Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Championship
2025-12-15
20:00
Sheffield Wednesday
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Derby
Away
Prediction Summary
1
17%
X
22%
2
61%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Sheffield Wednesday (Home)
Goals scored / match0.61
Goals conceded / match1.91
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate48%
Derby (Away)
Goals scored / match1.57
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Sheffield Wednesday
WLLDD
Derby
LWLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
48%
+0.5
87%
13%
+1.5
43%
0%
+2.5
17%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
48%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.
Sheffield Wednesday averages 0.61 goals scored at home, while Derby averages 1.57 goals scored away.
Model Strength
61%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
17%
Draw
22%
Away Win
61%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Sheffield Wednesday(A)
1 - 2
Derby
Away
Dec 2025
Sheffield Wednesday
0 - 3
Derby
Away
Jan 2025
Sheffield Wednesday
4 - 2
Derby
Home
Dec 2024
Sheffield Wednesday(A)
2 - 1
Derby
Home
May 2021
Sheffield Wednesday(A)
3 - 3
Derby
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Sheffield Wednesday won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Sheffield Wednesday — unbeaten run (home)3
Sheffield Wednesday — scoring streak (home)3
Derby — winless run (away)0
Derby — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Sheffield Wednesday Win (1)17%
Draw (X)22%
Derby Win (2)61%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
48%
+0.5
87%
13%
+1.5
43%
0%
+2.5
17%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
52%
-0.5
13%
87%
-1.5
57%
100%
-2.5
83%
100%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Sheffield Wednesday — scored (home)0.61
Sheffield Wednesday — conceded (home)1.91
Derby — scored (away)1.57
Derby — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.84
Both Teams To Score
Yes51%
No49%
Rate per Team
Sheffield Wednesday — BTTS matches (home)48%
Derby — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)56.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.583%
Under 6.517%
Over 7.572%
Under 7.528%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Sheffield Wednesday (home)
Corners for4.8
Corners against5.7
Derby (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Sheffield Wednesday
9
9
10
8
7
Derby
8
10
7
16
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Sheffield Wednesday (home)
For1.8
Derby (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Sheffield Wednesday — total shots (home)9.3
Derby — total shots (away)10.0
Shots on Target
Sheffield Wednesday — on target (home)2.5
Derby — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Sheffield Wednesday
Inside the box5.93
Outside the box2.74
Derby
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box3.35
Player Shots Sheffield Wednesday
B. Cadamarteri
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target3%
G. Brown
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
B. Bannan
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Lowe
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Yates
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Derby
P. Agyemang
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Szmodics
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target8%
C. Morris
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
B. Brereton
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Banel
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Sheffield Wednesday xG (home)0.85
Derby xG (away)1.23
Average Possession
44.85%
Possession
44.48%
Team Comparison Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby
72.83%
Pass accuracy
73.22%
360.35
Passes per match
336.26
0.08
Goals prevented
0.02
11.8
Fouls committed
12.22
3.91
Goalkeeper saves
3.15
1.3
Offsides
1.6
16.37
Tackles per match
14.65
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby prediction analysis
Review Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights