What markets are included in the Southampton vs Arsenal prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Southampton vs Arsenal prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Southampton vs Arsenal

Southampton vs Arsenal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2025-05-25 15:00

Southampton

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

56%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-2

Arsenal

Away

Prediction Summary

12%

19%

69%

Over 2.5

56%

BTTS No

52%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Southampton (Home)

Goals scored / match0.68

Goals conceded / match2.47

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate53%

Arsenal (Away)

Goals scored / match1.79

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Southampton

LLDLL

Arsenal

WWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 84%

11% +1.5 47%

0% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 16%

0% +4.5 11%

53% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.

Southampton averages 0.68 goals scored at home, while Arsenal averages 1.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength

69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

12%

Draw

19%

Away Win

69%

Over 2.5

56%

BTTS Yes

48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Southampton 2 - 1 Arsenal Home

May 2025 Southampton 1 - 2 Arsenal Away

Oct 2024 Southampton(A) 1 - 3 Arsenal Away

Apr 2023 Southampton(A) 3 - 3 Arsenal Draw

Oct 2022 Southampton 1 - 1 Arsenal Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Southampton won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Southampton — unbeaten run (home)0

Southampton — scoring streak (home)1

Arsenal — winless run (away)0

Arsenal — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Southampton Win (1)12%

Draw (X)19%

Arsenal Win (2)69%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 84%

11% +1.5 47%

0% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 16%

0% +4.5 11%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 16%

89% -1.5 53%

100% -2.5 79%

100% -3.5 84%

100% -4.5 89%

Southampton vs Arsenal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Southampton — scored (home)0.68

Southampton — conceded (home)2.47

Arsenal — scored (away)1.79

Arsenal — conceded (away)0.89

Model expected combined goals2.92

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%

No52%

Rate per Team

Southampton — BTTS matches (home)53%

Arsenal — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)55.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%

Under 4.510%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.577%

Under 6.523%

Over 7.563%

Under 7.537%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.561%

Under 9.539%

Over 10.550%

Under 10.550%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Southampton (home)

Corners for3.2

Corners against7.2

Arsenal (away)

Corners for5.8

Corners against3.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Southampton

13 13 16 9 13

Arsenal

9 5 4 17 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.589%

Under 0.511%

Over 1.582%

Under 1.518%

Over 2.566%

Under 2.534%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Southampton (home)

For2.2

Arsenal (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Southampton — total shots (home)8.6

Arsenal — total shots (away)12.7

Shots on Target

Southampton — on target (home)3.0

Arsenal — on target (away)4.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Southampton

Inside the box6.45

Outside the box2.58

Arsenal

Inside the box10.55

Outside the box3.84

Player Shots Southampton

J. Aribo

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target6%

P. Onuachu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target24%

J. Bednarek

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target7%

+1.5 On Target3%

Mateus Fernandes

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target11%

T. Harwood-Bellis

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Arsenal

Gabriel Jesus

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

R. Calafiori

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target21%

+1.5 On Target5%

B. Saka

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target20%

K. Havertz

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target26%

L. Trossard

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target16%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton xG (home)0.87

Arsenal xG (away)1.62

Average Possession

48.66% Possession 56.97%

Team Comparison Southampton vs Arsenal

84.79% Pass accuracy 86.03%

454.84 Passes per match 489.97

0.07 Goals prevented 0.1

12.08 Fouls committed 10.55

4.26 Goalkeeper saves 2.26

1.44 Offsides 2.29

17.18 Tackles per match 15.71

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Southampton vs Arsenal prediction analysis

Review Southampton vs Arsenal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights