Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Southampton vs Stoke City

Southampton vs Stoke City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-08-22 14:00
Southampton
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Southampton
Probability
53%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Stoke City
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
27%
2
20%
Under 2.5
62%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Southampton (Home)

Goals scored / match1.67
Goals conceded / match0.83
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate54%

Stoke City (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate26%

Team Form last 5 matches

Southampton
WDWDD
Stoke City
LLLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 48%
50% +1.5 17%
25% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
54% BTTS 26%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Southampton averages 1.67 goals scored at home, while Stoke City averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Yes
42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Southampton(A) 2 - 0 Stoke City Home
Aug 2025 Southampton 1 - 2 Stoke City Away
Oct 2024 Southampton 3 - 2 Stoke City Home
Apr 2024 Southampton 0 - 1 Stoke City Away
Oct 2023 Southampton(A) 1 - 0 Stoke City Home

In the last 5 meetings, Southampton won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Southampton — unbeaten run (home)11
Southampton — scoring streak (home)12
Stoke City — winless run (away)9
Stoke City — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Southampton Win (1)53%
Draw (X)27%
Stoke City Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 48%
50% +1.5 17%
25% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 52%
50% -1.5 83%
75% -2.5 91%
96% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Southampton vs Stoke City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Southampton — scored (home)1.67
Southampton — conceded (home)0.83
Stoke City — scored (away)0.74
Stoke City — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.23

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%
No58%

Rate per Team

Southampton — BTTS matches (home)54%
Stoke City — BTTS matches (away)26%
Combined (simple average)40%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Southampton (home)

Corners for6.5
Corners against4.5

Stoke City (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Southampton
10 14 15 12 16
Stoke City
7 8 12 9 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Southampton (home)

For1.6

Stoke City (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.39

Southampton

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.570%
Shots Over 13.556%
Expected shots14.75
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93

Stoke City

Shots Over 9.557%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.523%
Expected shots10.63
On Target Over 3.542%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.514%
Expected on target3.35

Shots per Game

Southampton — total shots (home)15.8
Stoke City — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Southampton — on target (home)5.4
Stoke City — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Southampton

Inside the box9.77
Outside the box4.67

Stoke City

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box3.93

Player Shots Southampton

A. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target48%
Léo Scienza
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target26%
C. Larin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target17%
F. Azaz
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Stoke City

M. Manhoef
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
S. Thomas
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
D. Mubama
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target15%
L. Cissé
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Rak-Sakyi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton xG (home)1.67
Stoke City xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

56.31% Possession 51.91%

Team Comparison Southampton vs Stoke City

83.17% Pass accuracy 78.17%
479.94 Passes per match 399.07
-0.06 Goals prevented 0
11.02 Fouls committed 10.48
2.52 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.87 Offsides 2.7
15 Tackles per match 12.98

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Southampton vs Stoke City prediction analysis

Review Southampton vs Stoke City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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