Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-12-14 11:15
Sparta Rotterdam
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
56%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Heerenveen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
25%
2
40%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Sparta Rotterdam (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%

Heerenveen (Away)

Goals scored / match1.44
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sparta Rotterdam
LLDLL
Heerenveen
LDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 72%
41% +1.5 50%
6% +2.5 22%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Heerenveen averages 1.44 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
25%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Sparta Rotterdam(A) 1 - 2 Heerenveen Away
Dec 2025 Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 3 Heerenveen Away
Apr 2025 Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 1 Heerenveen Home
Oct 2024 Sparta Rotterdam(A) 0 - 2 Heerenveen Away
May 2024 Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 1 Heerenveen Home

In the last 5 meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Sparta Rotterdam — unbeaten run (home)0
Sparta Rotterdam — scoring streak (home)2
Heerenveen — winless run (away)2
Heerenveen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sparta Rotterdam Win (1)36%
Draw (X)25%
Heerenveen Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 72%
41% +1.5 50%
6% +2.5 22%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 28%
59% -1.5 50%
94% -2.5 78%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sparta Rotterdam — scored (home)1.24
Sparta Rotterdam — conceded (home)1.59
Heerenveen — scored (away)1.44
Heerenveen — conceded (away)1.78
Model expected combined goals2.93

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

Sparta Rotterdam — BTTS matches (home)47%
Heerenveen — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.5100%
Under 6.50%
Over 7.588%
Under 7.512%
Over 8.580%
Under 8.520%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.555%
Under 10.545%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sparta Rotterdam (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against6.5

Heerenveen (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sparta Rotterdam
7 11 14 11 7
Heerenveen
7 12 10 16 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Sparta Rotterdam (home)

For1.5

Heerenveen (away)

For1.6

Shots per Game

Sparta Rotterdam — total shots (home)13.8
Heerenveen — total shots (away)13.7

Shots on Target

Sparta Rotterdam — on target (home)4.9
Heerenveen — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sparta Rotterdam

Inside the box8.41
Outside the box4.59

Heerenveen

Inside the box9.89
Outside the box5

Player Shots Sparta Rotterdam

T. Lauritsen
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target12%
M. Zonneveld
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. van Bergen
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
S. Mito
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
A. Oufkir
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Heerenveen

J. Trenskow
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target35%
L. Nordås
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target35%
M. Rivera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
D. Vente
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Meerveld
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target16%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sparta Rotterdam xG (home)1.34
Heerenveen xG (away)1.71

Average Possession

47.03% Possession 51.2%

Team Comparison Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen

79.41% Pass accuracy 79.77%
396.12 Passes per match 443.94
0.04 Goals prevented -0.23
9.85 Fouls committed 10.89
4.21 Goalkeeper saves 3.83
1.24 Offsides 1.26
17.06 Tackles per match 15.17

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen prediction analysis

Review Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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