Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sport Recife vs Corinthians

Sport Recife vs Corinthians prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-09-21 20:30
Sport Recife
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Corinthians
Away

Prediction Summary

1
33%
X
28%
2
39%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Sport Recife (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match2.05
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Corinthians (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sport Recife
LLLLL
Corinthians
DLDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 68%
26% +1.5 5%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sport Recife averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Corinthians averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
33%
Draw
28%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Sport Recife 1 - 0 Corinthians Home
Apr 2025 Sport Recife(A) 1 - 2 Corinthians Away
Oct 2021 Sport Recife 1 - 0 Corinthians Home
Jun 2021 Sport Recife(A) 1 - 2 Corinthians Away
Jan 2021 Sport Recife(A) 0 - 3 Corinthians Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sport Recife won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Sport Recife — unbeaten run (home)0
Sport Recife — scoring streak (home)0
Corinthians — winless run (away)3
Corinthians — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sport Recife Win (1)33%
Draw (X)28%
Corinthians Win (2)39%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 68%
26% +1.5 5%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 32%
74% -1.5 95%
100% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Sport Recife vs Corinthians — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sport Recife — scored (home)0.89
Sport Recife — conceded (home)2.05
Corinthians — scored (away)0.79
Corinthians — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

Sport Recife — BTTS matches (home)58%
Corinthians — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)55.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sport Recife (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.8

Corinthians (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sport Recife
12 10 12 8 6
Corinthians
9 12 12 7 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Sport Recife (home)

For2.6

Corinthians (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

Sport Recife — total shots (home)12.0
Corinthians — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Sport Recife — on target (home)3.7
Corinthians — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sport Recife

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.95

Corinthians

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.13

Player Shots Sport Recife

Derik Lacerda
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target35%
Léo Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target25%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Ortíz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
I. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Corinthians

Yuri Alberto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Depay
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target26%
Igor Coronado
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gustavo Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target9%
Vitinho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sport Recife xG (home)0.97
Corinthians xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

46.24% Possession 55.74%

Team Comparison Sport Recife vs Corinthians

81.37% Pass accuracy 84.82%
375.95 Passes per match 467.61
0.15 Goals prevented 0.03
13.63 Fouls committed 13.95
4.13 Goalkeeper saves 2.43
1.84 Offsides 1.79
15.18 Tackles per match 15.97

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sport Recife vs Corinthians prediction analysis

Review Sport Recife vs Corinthians with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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