Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sport Recife vs Flamengo

Sport Recife vs Flamengo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-15 21:30
Sport Recife
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Flamengo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
21%
X
25%
2
54%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Sport Recife (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match2.05
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Flamengo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sport Recife
LLLLL
Flamengo
DWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 58%
0% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
58% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sport Recife averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Flamengo averages 1.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
21%
Draw
25%
Away Win
54%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Sport Recife 1 - 5 Flamengo Away
Nov 2025 Sport Recife(A) 0 - 3 Flamengo Away
Dec 2021 Sport Recife 1 - 1 Flamengo Draw
Aug 2021 Sport Recife(A) 0 - 2 Flamengo Away
Feb 2021 Sport Recife 0 - 3 Flamengo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sport Recife won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Sport Recife — unbeaten run (home)0
Sport Recife — scoring streak (home)0
Flamengo — winless run (away)3
Flamengo — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sport Recife Win (1)21%
Draw (X)25%
Flamengo Win (2)54%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 58%
0% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 21%
74% -1.5 42%
100% -2.5 79%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Sport Recife vs Flamengo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sport Recife — scored (home)0.89
Sport Recife — conceded (home)2.05
Flamengo — scored (away)1.68
Flamengo — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.45

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Sport Recife — BTTS matches (home)58%
Flamengo — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sport Recife (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.8

Flamengo (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against3.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sport Recife
12 10 12 8 6
Flamengo
8 10 6 7 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Sport Recife (home)

For2.6

Flamengo (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Sport Recife — total shots (home)12.0
Flamengo — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

Sport Recife — on target (home)3.7
Flamengo — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sport Recife

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.95

Flamengo

Inside the box9.92
Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Sport Recife

Derik Lacerda
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target35%
Léo Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target25%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Ortíz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
I. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Flamengo

Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. de Arrascaeta
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target12%
Bruno Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Samuel Lino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
Luiz Araújo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sport Recife xG (home)0.97
Flamengo xG (away)1.63

Average Possession

46.24% Possession 62.08%

Team Comparison Sport Recife vs Flamengo

81.37% Pass accuracy 88.34%
375.95 Passes per match 562.39
0.15 Goals prevented -0.02
13.63 Fouls committed 13.42
4.13 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
1.84 Offsides 1.24
15.18 Tackles per match 15.21

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sport Recife vs Flamengo prediction analysis

Review Sport Recife vs Flamengo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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