Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama

Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie A 2025-08-31 23:30
Sport Recife
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Vasco DA Gama
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
26%
2
44%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Sport Recife (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match2.05
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Vasco DA Gama (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sport Recife
LLLLL
Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 58%
26% +1.5 32%
0% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
58% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Sport Recife averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Vasco DA Gama averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
26%
Away Win
44%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Aug 2025 Sport Recife 2 - 3 Vasco DA Gama Away
Apr 2025 Sport Recife(A) 1 - 3 Vasco DA Gama Away
Oct 2022 Sport Recife 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama Draw
Jul 2022 Sport Recife(A) 0 - 0 Vasco DA Gama Draw
Nov 2020 Sport Recife 0 - 2 Vasco DA Gama Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sport Recife won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Sport Recife — unbeaten run (home)0
Sport Recife — scoring streak (home)0
Vasco DA Gama — winless run (away)4
Vasco DA Gama — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sport Recife Win (1)30%
Draw (X)26%
Vasco DA Gama Win (2)44%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 58%
26% +1.5 32%
0% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 42%
74% -1.5 68%
100% -2.5 79%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sport Recife — scored (home)0.89
Sport Recife — conceded (home)2.05
Vasco DA Gama — scored (away)1.26
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.66

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Sport Recife — BTTS matches (home)58%
Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sport Recife (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.8

Vasco DA Gama (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sport Recife
12 10 12 8 6
Vasco DA Gama
8 12 7 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Sport Recife (home)

For2.6

Vasco DA Gama (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Sport Recife — total shots (home)12.0
Vasco DA Gama — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Sport Recife — on target (home)3.7
Vasco DA Gama — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sport Recife

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.95

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Sport Recife

Derik Lacerda
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target35%
Léo Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target25%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Ortíz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
I. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sport Recife xG (home)0.97
Vasco DA Gama xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

46.24% Possession 54.58%

Team Comparison Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama

81.37% Pass accuracy 86.47%
375.95 Passes per match 481
0.15 Goals prevented -0.15
13.63 Fouls committed 13.18
4.13 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.84 Offsides 0.81
15.18 Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama prediction analysis

Review Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top