What markets are included in the Sporting CP vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sporting CP vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sporting CP vs Nacional

Sporting CP vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-01-25 20:30

Sporting CP

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

68%

21%

11%

Under 2.5

56%

BTTS No

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sporting CP (Home)

Goals scored / match2.35

Goals conceded / match0.76

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate59%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.53

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sporting CP

WDWWW

Nacional

LDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 41%

82% +1.5 12%

47% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

6% +4.5 0%

59% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sporting CP averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength

68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

68%

Draw

21%

Away Win

11%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

38%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Sporting CP 2 - 1 Nacional Home

Aug 2025 Sporting CP(A) 4 - 1 Nacional Home

Jan 2025 Sporting CP 2 - 0 Nacional Home

Oct 2024 Sporting CP 3 - 1 Nacional Home

Aug 2024 Sporting CP(A) 6 - 1 Nacional Home

In the last 5 meetings, Sporting CP won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Sporting CP — unbeaten run (home)11

Sporting CP — scoring streak (home)11

Nacional — winless run (away)2

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sporting CP Win (1)68%

Draw (X)21%

Nacional Win (2)11%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 41%

82% +1.5 12%

47% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 59%

18% -1.5 88%

53% -2.5 100%

94% -3.5 100%

94% -4.5 100%

Sporting CP vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sporting CP — scored (home)2.35

Sporting CP — conceded (home)0.76

Nacional — scored (away)0.53

Nacional — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%

No62%

Rate per Team

Sporting CP — BTTS matches (home)59%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.588%

Under 6.512%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.559%

Under 8.541%

Over 9.559%

Under 9.541%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sporting CP (home)

Corners for7.1

Corners against2.8

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sporting CP

6 8 11 8 8

Nacional

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Sporting CP (home)

For1.9

Nacional (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Sporting CP — total shots (home)18.9

Nacional — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Sporting CP — on target (home)6.6

Nacional — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sporting CP

Inside the box12.56

Outside the box5.79

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Player Shots Sporting CP

V. Gyökeres

Shots on Target/Game2.8

+0.5 On Target88%

+1.5 On Target70%

C. Harder

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target14%

Trincão

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target29%

M. Hjulmand

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target4%

Pote

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting CP xG (home)2.14

Nacional xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

60.44% Possession 47.29%

Team Comparison Sporting CP vs Nacional

87.03% Pass accuracy 76.94%

520.47 Passes per match 339.32

-0.26 Goals prevented 0

11.5 Fouls committed 13.5

1.41 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.16 Offsides 1.65

16 Tackles per match 15.94

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sporting CP vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Sporting CP vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights