Prediction Analysis: Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Segunda División
2026-08-23
15:00
Sporting Gijon
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Burgos
Away
Prediction Summary
1
43%
X
27%
2
30%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Sporting Gijon (Home)
Goals scored / match1.67
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate62%
Burgos (Away)
Goals scored / match1.1
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate14%
BTTS rate38%
Team Form last 5 matches
Sporting Gijon
WWWLL
Burgos
WWWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
90%
+0.5
62%
48%
+1.5
33%
24%
+2.5
14%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
62%
BTTS
38%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.
Sporting Gijon averages 1.67 goals scored at home, while Burgos averages 1.1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Sporting Gijon(A)
0 - 1
Burgos
Away
Sep 2025
Sporting Gijon
2 - 3
Burgos
Away
Feb 2025
Sporting Gijon
2 - 0
Burgos
Home
Nov 2024
Sporting Gijon(A)
2 - 0
Burgos
Home
Feb 2024
Sporting Gijon(A)
0 - 1
Burgos
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Sporting Gijon won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Sporting Gijon — unbeaten run (home)1
Sporting Gijon — scoring streak (home)6
Burgos — winless run (away)0
Burgos — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Sporting Gijon Win (1)43%
Draw (X)27%
Burgos Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
90%
+0.5
62%
48%
+1.5
33%
24%
+2.5
14%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
10%
-0.5
38%
52%
-1.5
67%
76%
-2.5
86%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Sporting Gijon — scored (home)1.67
Sporting Gijon — conceded (home)1.05
Burgos — scored (away)1.1
Burgos — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.41
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Sporting Gijon — BTTS matches (home)62%
Burgos — BTTS matches (away)38%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Sporting Gijon (home)
Corners for5.2
Corners against5.0
Burgos (away)
Corners for3.2
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Sporting Gijon
8
10
11
12
7
Burgos
4
14
8
9
4
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.595%
Under 2.55%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Sporting Gijon (home)
For2.1
Burgos (away)
For2.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.553%
Under 22.547%
Over 25.538%
Under 25.562%
Expected total shots23.69
Sporting Gijon
Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.31
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.66
Burgos
Shots Over 9.555%
Shots Over 11.536%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.38
On Target Over 3.541%
On Target Over 4.525%
On Target Over 5.513%
Expected on target3.30
Shots per Game
Sporting Gijon — total shots (home)13.5
Burgos — total shots (away)8.6
Shots on Target
Sporting Gijon — on target (home)5.3
Burgos — on target (away)2.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Sporting Gijon
Inside the box8
Outside the box3.38
Burgos
Inside the box6.98
Outside the box3.07
Player Shots Sporting Gijon
A. Ferrari
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Otero
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target31%
A. Coundoul
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
Guille Rosas
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target8%
Gaspar Campos
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Burgos
Curro Sánchez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target16%
Fer Niño
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Iñigo Córdoba
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target5%
Mario González
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target4%
David González
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Gijon xG (home)1.32
Burgos xG (away)1.25
Average Possession
45.52%
Possession
46.24%
Team Comparison Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
73.33%
Pass accuracy
84.5%
391.02
Passes per match
378.29
0
Goals prevented
0
11.69
Fouls committed
12.88
3.07
Goalkeeper saves
2.71
2.32
Offsides
2.31
17.64
Tackles per match
18
League average xG this season is 1.42 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos prediction and preview
Preview Sporting Gijon vs Burgos with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Segunda División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights