Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-08-02 00:30
Sporting Kansas City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Houston Dynamo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
24%
2
40%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Sporting Kansas City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.5
Goals conceded / match1.83
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate67%

Houston Dynamo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sporting Kansas City
LWLDL
Houston Dynamo
WDDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

78% +0.5 71%
50% +1.5 35%
17% +2.5 24%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
67% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sporting Kansas City averages 1.5 goals scored at home, while Houston Dynamo averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
24%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Sporting Kansas City 0 - 0 Houston Dynamo Draw
Jun 2025 Sporting Kansas City(A) 3 - 1 Houston Dynamo Home
May 2024 Sporting Kansas City 1 - 2 Houston Dynamo Away
Feb 2024 Sporting Kansas City(A) 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo Draw
Nov 2023 Sporting Kansas City(A) 0 - 1 Houston Dynamo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Sporting Kansas City — unbeaten run (home)2
Sporting Kansas City — scoring streak (home)1
Houston Dynamo — winless run (away)3
Houston Dynamo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sporting Kansas City Win (1)36%
Draw (X)24%
Houston Dynamo Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

78% +0.5 71%
50% +1.5 35%
17% +2.5 24%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

22% -0.5 29%
50% -1.5 65%
83% -2.5 76%
94% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sporting Kansas City — scored (home)1.5
Sporting Kansas City — conceded (home)1.83
Houston Dynamo — scored (away)1.35
Houston Dynamo — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals3.11

Both Teams To Score

Yes62%
No38%

Rate per Team

Sporting Kansas City — BTTS matches (home)67%
Houston Dynamo — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sporting Kansas City (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against3.6

Houston Dynamo (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against6.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sporting Kansas City
6 12 11 6 6
Houston Dynamo
8 8 12 6 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Sporting Kansas City (home)

For2.2

Houston Dynamo (away)

For2.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.14

Sporting Kansas City

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.02
On Target Over 3.570%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target4.97

Houston Dynamo

Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.12
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.525%
Expected on target4.17

Shots per Game

Sporting Kansas City — total shots (home)13.1
Houston Dynamo — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Sporting Kansas City — on target (home)4.6
Houston Dynamo — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sporting Kansas City

Inside the box7.91
Outside the box3.76

Houston Dynamo

Inside the box8.18
Outside the box4.09

Player Shots Sporting Kansas City

D. Joveljić
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
S. Afrifa
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target10%
+1.5 On Target10%
D. Sallói
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
E. Thommy
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Z. Bassong
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Houston Dynamo

G. Segal
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target9%
Antônio Carlos
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. McGlynn
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
E. Ponce
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
L. Ennali
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting Kansas City xG (home)1.27
Houston Dynamo xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

47.97% Possession 50.47%

Team Comparison Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

83.4% Pass accuracy 85.24%
451.21 Passes per match 456.85
-0.11 Goals prevented 0.04
11.91 Fouls committed 14.65
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.65
1.38 Offsides 1.48
14.2 Tackles per match 13.91

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo prediction analysis

Review Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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