Prediction Analysis: St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Major League Soccer
2026-08-02
00:30
St. Louis City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Real Salt Lake
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
25%
2
29%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
St. Louis City (Home)
Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate68%
Real Salt Lake (Away)
Goals scored / match0.9
Goals conceded / match1.8
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
St. Louis City
WWWDW
Real Salt Lake
LLLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
70%
47%
+1.5
15%
16%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
68%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.
St. Louis City averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Real Salt Lake averages 0.9 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
25%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Head-to-Head last 5
Oct 2025
St. Louis City
2 - 2
Real Salt Lake
Draw
Jul 2025
St. Louis City(A)
2 - 3
Real Salt Lake
Away
Mar 2024
St. Louis City(A)
1 - 3
Real Salt Lake
Away
Feb 2024
St. Louis City
1 - 1
Real Salt Lake
Draw
Jun 2023
St. Louis City
1 - 3
Real Salt Lake
Away
In the last 5 meetings, St. Louis City won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
St. Louis City — unbeaten run (home)3
St. Louis City — scoring streak (home)3
Real Salt Lake — winless run (away)8
Real Salt Lake — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
St. Louis City Win (1)46%
Draw (X)25%
Real Salt Lake Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
70%
47%
+1.5
15%
16%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
30%
53%
-1.5
85%
84%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
St. Louis City — scored (home)1.42
St. Louis City — conceded (home)1.58
Real Salt Lake — scored (away)0.9
Real Salt Lake — conceded (away)1.8
Model expected combined goals2.85
Both Teams To Score
Yes57%
No43%
Rate per Team
St. Louis City — BTTS matches (home)68%
Real Salt Lake — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)66.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
St. Louis City (home)
Corners for6.2
Corners against4.4
Real Salt Lake (away)
Corners for3.8
Corners against5.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
St. Louis City
10
10
11
11
10
Real Salt Lake
8
10
13
19
18
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
St. Louis City (home)
For1.9
Real Salt Lake (away)
For2.9
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.584%
Under 19.516%
Over 22.572%
Under 22.528%
Over 25.559%
Under 25.541%
Expected total shots28.05
St. Louis City
Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.559%
Expected shots15.22
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.558%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.25
Real Salt Lake
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.558%
Shots Over 13.541%
Expected shots12.83
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.40
Shots per Game
St. Louis City — total shots (home)16.4
Real Salt Lake — total shots (away)14.0
Shots on Target
St. Louis City — on target (home)5.6
Real Salt Lake — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
St. Louis City
Inside the box9.85
Outside the box4.44
Real Salt Lake
Inside the box7.83
Outside the box6.71
Player Shots St. Louis City
C. Durkin
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target6%
Brendan McSorley
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
J. Orozco
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Hartel
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
João Klauss
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target21%
Player Shots Real Salt Lake
V. Olatunji
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
Jesús Rafael Barea Barroso
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
Z. Gozo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
F. Ajago
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Diogo Gonçalves
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target17%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
St. Louis City xG (home)1.55
Real Salt Lake xG (away)1.25
Average Possession
47.24%
Possession
52.11%
Team Comparison St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
82.77%
Pass accuracy
85.29%
419.44
Passes per match
474.06
0.33
Goals prevented
0.07
11.38
Fouls committed
13.29
3.56
Goalkeeper saves
2.97
1.81
Offsides
2
15.8
Tackles per match
14.23
League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake prediction analysis
Review St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights