What markets are included in the Stoke City vs Derby prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Stoke City vs Derby prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Stoke City vs Derby

Stoke City vs Derby prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-08-09 14:00

Stoke City

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

54%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Derby

Away

Prediction Summary

38%

25%

36%

Over 2.5

54%

BTTS Yes

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Stoke City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48

Goals conceded / match1.22

Over 2.5 rate22%

BTTS rate61%

Derby (Away)

Goals scored / match1.57

Goals conceded / match1.39

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Stoke City

LLLLD

Derby

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

78% +0.5 87%

39% +1.5 43%

22% +2.5 17%

4% +3.5 4%

4% +4.5 4%

61% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Stoke City averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Derby averages 1.57 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

38%

Draw

25%

Away Win

36%

Over 2.5

54%

BTTS Yes

57%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Stoke City(A) 0 - 2 Derby Away

Aug 2025 Stoke City 3 - 1 Derby Home

May 2025 Stoke City(A) 0 - 0 Derby Draw

Nov 2024 Stoke City 2 - 1 Derby Home

Dec 2021 Stoke City 1 - 2 Derby Away

In the last 5 meetings, Stoke City won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Stoke City — unbeaten run (home)0

Stoke City — scoring streak (home)8

Derby — winless run (away)0

Derby — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Stoke City Win (1)38%

Draw (X)25%

Derby Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

78% +0.5 87%

39% +1.5 43%

22% +2.5 17%

4% +3.5 4%

4% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

22% -0.5 13%

61% -1.5 57%

78% -2.5 83%

96% -3.5 96%

96% -4.5 96%

Stoke City vs Derby — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Stoke City — scored (home)1.48

Stoke City — conceded (home)1.22

Derby — scored (away)1.57

Derby — conceded (away)1.39

Model expected combined goals2.83

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%

No43%

Rate per Team

Stoke City — BTTS matches (home)61%

Derby — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%

Under 4.54%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Stoke City (home)

Corners for6.4

Corners against4.2

Derby (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Stoke City

7 8 12 9 17

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.583%

Under 2.517%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Stoke City (home)

For2.0

Derby (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Stoke City — total shots (home)12.7

Derby — total shots (away)10.0

Shots on Target

Stoke City — on target (home)4.8

Derby — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Stoke City

Inside the box7.33

Outside the box3.93

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Player Shots Stoke City

M. Manhoef

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target16%

S. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target16%

D. Mubama

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target15%

L. Cissé

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target9%

J. Rak-Sakyi

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Stoke City xG (home)1.11

Derby xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

51.91% Possession 44.48%

Team Comparison Stoke City vs Derby

78.17% Pass accuracy 73.22%

399.07 Passes per match 336.26

0 Goals prevented 0.02

10.48 Fouls committed 12.22

2.61 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

2.7 Offsides 1.6

12.98 Tackles per match 14.65

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Stoke City vs Derby prediction analysis

Review Stoke City vs Derby with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights