What markets are included in the Swansea vs Derby prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Swansea vs Derby prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Swansea vs Derby

Swansea vs Derby prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-11-25 19:45

Swansea

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

51%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Derby

Away

Prediction Summary

30%

25%

45%

Over 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

55%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Swansea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate13%

BTTS rate61%

Derby (Away)

Goals scored / match1.57

Goals conceded / match1.39

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Swansea

WDWLW

Derby

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 87%

39% +1.5 43%

13% +2.5 17%

4% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 4%

61% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.

Swansea averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Derby averages 1.57 goals scored away.

Model Strength

55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

30%

Draw

25%

Away Win

45%

Over 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

55%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Swansea(A) 0 - 2 Derby Away

Nov 2025 Swansea 1 - 2 Derby Away

Apr 2025 Swansea 1 - 0 Derby Home

Nov 2024 Swansea(A) 2 - 1 Derby Home

Apr 2022 Swansea 2 - 1 Derby Home

In the last 5 meetings, Swansea won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Swansea — unbeaten run (home)1

Swansea — scoring streak (home)3

Derby — winless run (away)0

Derby — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Swansea Win (1)30%

Draw (X)25%

Derby Win (2)45%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 87%

39% +1.5 43%

13% +2.5 17%

4% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 13%

61% -1.5 57%

87% -2.5 83%

96% -3.5 96%

100% -4.5 96%

Swansea vs Derby — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Swansea — scored (home)1.48

Swansea — conceded (home)1.17

Derby — scored (away)1.57

Derby — conceded (away)1.39

Model expected combined goals2.73

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%

No45%

Rate per Team

Swansea — BTTS matches (home)61%

Derby — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%

Under 4.54%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.570%

Under 7.530%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.539%

Under 10.561%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Swansea (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against5.0

Derby (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Swansea

14 16 9 7 14

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%

Under 0.54%

Over 1.596%

Under 1.54%

Over 2.583%

Under 2.517%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Swansea (home)

For2.0

Derby (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Swansea — total shots (home)13.6

Derby — total shots (away)10.0

Shots on Target

Swansea — on target (home)3.8

Derby — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Swansea

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box5.2

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Player Shots Swansea

Z. Vipotnik

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target23%

A. Idah

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target12%

L. Cullen

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target8%

L. Walta

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target20%

Ronald

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Swansea xG (home)1.12

Derby xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

54.57% Possession 44.48%

Team Comparison Swansea vs Derby

79.43% Pass accuracy 73.22%

461.63 Passes per match 336.26

-0.11 Goals prevented 0.02

9.7 Fouls committed 12.22

3.2 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

2.11 Offsides 1.6

15.37 Tackles per match 14.65

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Swansea vs Derby prediction analysis

Review Swansea vs Derby with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights