Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Swansea vs Oxford United

Swansea vs Oxford United prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-06 15:00
Swansea
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Oxford United
Away

Prediction Summary

1
33%
X
26%
2
41%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Swansea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate61%

Oxford United (Away)

Goals scored / match0.91
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Swansea
WDWLW
Oxford United
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 57%
39% +1.5 26%
13% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
61% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

Swansea averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Oxford United averages 0.91 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
33%
Draw
26%
Away Win
41%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Swansea(A) 1 - 0 Oxford United Home
Dec 2025 Swansea 2 - 0 Oxford United Home
May 2025 Swansea 3 - 3 Oxford United Draw
Nov 2024 Swansea(A) 2 - 1 Oxford United Home
Aug 2022 Swansea(A) 2 - 2 Oxford United Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Swansea won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Swansea — unbeaten run (home)1
Swansea — scoring streak (home)3
Oxford United — winless run (away)4
Oxford United — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Swansea Win (1)33%
Draw (X)26%
Oxford United Win (2)41%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 57%
39% +1.5 26%
13% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 43%
61% -1.5 74%
87% -2.5 91%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Swansea vs Oxford United — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Swansea — scored (home)1.48
Swansea — conceded (home)1.17
Oxford United — scored (away)0.91
Oxford United — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.61

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Swansea — BTTS matches (home)61%
Oxford United — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.594%
Under 6.56%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.585%
Under 8.515%
Over 9.572%
Under 9.528%
Over 10.557%
Under 10.543%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Swansea (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against5.0

Oxford United (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against8.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Swansea
14 16 9 7 14
Oxford United
15 10 14 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.589%
Under 0.511%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Swansea (home)

For2.0

Oxford United (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Swansea — total shots (home)13.6
Oxford United — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Swansea — on target (home)3.8
Oxford United — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Swansea

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box5.2

Oxford United

Inside the box6.48
Outside the box5.46

Player Shots Swansea

Z. Vipotnik
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Idah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Cullen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Walta
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Ronald
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Oxford United

C. Brannagan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Mills
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
B. De Keersmaecker
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Peart-Harris
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Swansea xG (home)1.12
Oxford United xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

54.57% Possession 39.89%

Team Comparison Swansea vs Oxford United

79.43% Pass accuracy 69.57%
461.63 Passes per match 304.85
-0.11 Goals prevented 0.06
9.7 Fouls committed 10.98
3.2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2.11 Offsides 1.76
15.37 Tackles per match 17.04

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Swansea vs Oxford United prediction analysis

Review Swansea vs Oxford United with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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