Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Swansea vs Portsmouth

Swansea vs Portsmouth prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-09 19:45
Swansea
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Portsmouth
Away

Prediction Summary

1
45%
X
26%
2
29%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Swansea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate61%

Portsmouth (Away)

Goals scored / match1.04
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate61%

Team Form last 5 matches

Swansea
WDWLW
Portsmouth
DWLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 74%
39% +1.5 17%
13% +2.5 13%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
61% BTTS 61%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

Swansea averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Portsmouth averages 1.04 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 4

Mar 2026 Swansea(A) 2 - 1 Portsmouth Home
Dec 2025 Swansea 1 - 0 Portsmouth Home
Jan 2025 Swansea(A) 0 - 4 Portsmouth Away
Nov 2024 Swansea 2 - 2 Portsmouth Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Swansea won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Swansea — unbeaten run (home)1
Swansea — scoring streak (home)3
Portsmouth — winless run (away)0
Portsmouth — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Swansea Win (1)45%
Draw (X)26%
Portsmouth Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 74%
39% +1.5 17%
13% +2.5 13%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 26%
61% -1.5 83%
87% -2.5 87%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Swansea vs Portsmouth — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Swansea — scored (home)1.48
Swansea — conceded (home)1.17
Portsmouth — scored (away)1.04
Portsmouth — conceded (away)1.78
Model expected combined goals2.6

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Swansea — BTTS matches (home)61%
Portsmouth — BTTS matches (away)61%
Combined (simple average)61%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.581%
Under 7.519%
Over 8.579%
Under 8.521%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Swansea (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against5.0

Portsmouth (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Swansea
14 16 9 7 14
Portsmouth
10 12 3 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Swansea (home)

For2.0

Portsmouth (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Swansea — total shots (home)13.6
Portsmouth — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Swansea — on target (home)3.8
Portsmouth — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Swansea

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box5.2

Portsmouth

Inside the box7.93
Outside the box4.26

Player Shots Swansea

Z. Vipotnik
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Idah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Cullen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Walta
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Ronald
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Portsmouth

J. Murphy
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
C. Lang
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Kirk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Bianchini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Alli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Swansea xG (home)1.12
Portsmouth xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

54.57% Possession 50.43%

Team Comparison Swansea vs Portsmouth

79.43% Pass accuracy 73.96%
461.63 Passes per match 370.83
-0.11 Goals prevented -0.09
9.7 Fouls committed 10.15
3.2 Goalkeeper saves 2.6
2.11 Offsides 1.77
15.37 Tackles per match 13.7

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Swansea vs Portsmouth prediction analysis

Review Swansea vs Portsmouth with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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