Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Swansea vs Wrexham

Swansea vs Wrexham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-19 20:00
Swansea
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
38%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Wrexham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
29%
2
37%
Under 2.5
62%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Swansea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.48
Goals conceded / match1.17
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate61%

Wrexham (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Swansea
WDWLW
Wrexham
DLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 78%
39% +1.5 35%
13% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
61% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 38%. Model confidence is Medium.

Swansea averages 1.48 goals scored at home, while Wrexham averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
29%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 2

Mar 2026 Swansea(A) 0 - 2 Wrexham Away
Dec 2025 Swansea 2 - 1 Wrexham Home

In the last 2 meetings, Swansea won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Swansea — unbeaten run (home)1
Swansea — scoring streak (home)3
Wrexham — winless run (away)1
Wrexham — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Swansea Win (1)35%
Draw (X)29%
Wrexham Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 78%
39% +1.5 35%
13% +2.5 9%
4% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 22%
61% -1.5 65%
87% -2.5 91%
96% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Swansea vs Wrexham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Swansea — scored (home)1.48
Swansea — conceded (home)1.17
Wrexham — scored (away)1.22
Wrexham — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.22

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Swansea — BTTS matches (home)61%
Wrexham — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.578%
Under 7.522%
Over 8.570%
Under 8.530%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Swansea (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against5.0

Wrexham (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Swansea
14 16 9 7 14
Wrexham
9 8 14 9 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Swansea (home)

For2.0

Wrexham (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Swansea — total shots (home)13.6
Wrexham — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

Swansea — on target (home)3.8
Wrexham — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Swansea

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box5.2

Wrexham

Inside the box7.5
Outside the box3.8

Player Shots Swansea

Z. Vipotnik
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Idah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Cullen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Walta
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Ronald
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Wrexham

K. Moore
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target18%
J. Windass
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Rathbone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target4%
R. Hardie
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
S. Smith
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Swansea xG (home)1.12
Wrexham xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

54.57% Possession 48.2%

Team Comparison Swansea vs Wrexham

79.43% Pass accuracy 77.48%
461.63 Passes per match 412.91
-0.11 Goals prevented -0.12
9.7 Fouls committed 9.93
3.2 Goalkeeper saves 3.04
2.11 Offsides 2.14
15.37 Tackles per match 15.37

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Swansea vs Wrexham prediction analysis

Review Swansea vs Wrexham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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