Prediction Analysis: Toluca vs Necaxa
Toluca vs Necaxa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-08-03
01:00
Toluca
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
68%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Necaxa
Away
Prediction Summary
1
62%
X
19%
2
19%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
63%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Toluca (Home)
Goals scored / match2.23
Goals conceded / match1.09
Over 2.5 rate45%
BTTS rate73%
Necaxa (Away)
Goals scored / match1.29
Goals conceded / match2.35
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate76%
Team Form last 5 matches
Toluca
LWLLW
Necaxa
WLDDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
91%
+0.5
76%
64%
+1.5
29%
45%
+2.5
18%
14%
+3.5
6%
5%
+4.5
0%
73%
BTTS
76%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 68%. Model confidence is Medium.
Toluca averages 2.23 goals scored at home, while Necaxa averages 1.29 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
62%
Draw
19%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
63%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Toluca(A)
3 - 0
Necaxa
Home
Jul 2025
Toluca
3 - 1
Necaxa
Home
Mar 2025
Toluca
5 - 2
Necaxa
Home
Oct 2024
Toluca(A)
3 - 1
Necaxa
Home
Feb 2024
Toluca(A)
3 - 3
Necaxa
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Toluca won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Toluca — unbeaten run (home)0
Toluca — scoring streak (home)1
Necaxa — winless run (away)5
Necaxa — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Toluca Win (1)62%
Draw (X)19%
Necaxa Win (2)19%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
91%
+0.5
76%
64%
+1.5
29%
45%
+2.5
18%
14%
+3.5
6%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
9%
-0.5
24%
36%
-1.5
71%
55%
-2.5
82%
86%
-3.5
94%
95%
-4.5
100%
Toluca vs Necaxa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Toluca — scored (home)2.23
Toluca — conceded (home)1.09
Necaxa — scored (away)1.29
Necaxa — conceded (away)2.35
Model expected combined goals3.48
Both Teams To Score
Yes63%
No37%
Rate per Team
Toluca — BTTS matches (home)73%
Necaxa — BTTS matches (away)76%
Combined (simple average)74.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Toluca (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against3.2
Necaxa (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against5.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Toluca
9
14
7
10
10
Necaxa
11
9
12
5
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Toluca (home)
For2.0
Necaxa (away)
For2.8
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.568%
Under 22.532%
Over 25.555%
Under 25.545%
Expected total shots27.63
Toluca
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.576%
Shots Over 13.563%
Expected shots16.09
On Target Over 3.576%
On Target Over 4.561%
On Target Over 5.547%
Expected on target5.57
Necaxa
Shots Over 9.563%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.54
On Target Over 3.552%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.86
Shots per Game
Toluca — total shots (home)19.2
Necaxa — total shots (away)12.3
Shots on Target
Toluca — on target (home)6.4
Necaxa — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Toluca
Inside the box9.79
Outside the box7.62
Necaxa
Inside the box7.71
Outside the box6.26
Player Shots Toluca
M. Isaís
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
Paulinho
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target41%
J. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target19%
N. Castro
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
O. Virgen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Necaxa
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
K. Rosero
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target10%
R. Monreal
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target6%
E. Lara
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. de Buen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target15%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca xG (home)1.77
Necaxa xG (away)1.08
Average Possession
56.98%
Possession
49.29%
Team Comparison Toluca vs Necaxa
84.81%
Pass accuracy
80.87%
473.93
Passes per match
380.26
-0.3
Goals prevented
-0.09
13.1
Fouls committed
13.38
2.64
Goalkeeper saves
2.82
1.98
Offsides
1.13
15.91
Tackles per match
15.68
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Toluca vs Necaxa prediction analysis
Review Toluca vs Necaxa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Liga MX.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights