What markets are included in the Tondela vs Casa Pia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Tondela vs Casa Pia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Tondela vs Casa Pia

Tondela vs Casa Pia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-12-21 18:00

Tondela

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

42%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Casa Pia

Away

Prediction Summary

32%

28%

40%

Under 2.5

58%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Tondela (Home)

Goals scored / match0.76

Goals conceded / match1.24

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate35%

Casa Pia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.72

Goals conceded / match1.72

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Tondela

LWWDL

Casa Pia

WDDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

41% +0.5 50%

29% +1.5 22%

6% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

35% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Tondela averages 0.76 goals scored at home, while Casa Pia averages 0.72 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Away Win

40%

Over 2.5

42%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 2

May 2026 Tondela(A) 1 - 0 Casa Pia Home

Dec 2025 Tondela 1 - 2 Casa Pia Away

In the last 2 meetings, Tondela won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Tondela — unbeaten run (home)1

Tondela — scoring streak (home)1

Casa Pia — winless run (away)1

Casa Pia — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Tondela Win (1)32%

Draw (X)28%

Casa Pia Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

41% +0.5 50%

29% +1.5 22%

6% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

59% -0.5 50%

71% -1.5 78%

94% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Tondela vs Casa Pia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Tondela — scored (home)0.76

Tondela — conceded (home)1.24

Casa Pia — scored (away)0.72

Casa Pia — conceded (away)1.72

Model expected combined goals2.35

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Tondela — BTTS matches (home)35%

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (away)33%

Combined (simple average)34%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.586%

Under 6.514%

Over 7.572%

Under 7.528%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.555%

Under 9.545%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Tondela (home)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.9

Casa Pia (away)

Corners for4.4

Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Tondela

15 10 9 9 11

Casa Pia

9 10 9 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.586%

Under 2.514%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Tondela (home)

For2.4

Casa Pia (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Tondela — total shots (home)12.1

Casa Pia — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Tondela — on target (home)3.5

Casa Pia — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Tondela

Inside the box6.38

Outside the box4.21

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.53

Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Tondela

Pedro Maranhão

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target15%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target13%

Miro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

M. Aïko

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Siebatcheu

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Casa Pia

Gaizka Larrazabal

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target14%

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

J. Livolant

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target9%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target12%

D. Livramento

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela xG (home)1.12

Casa Pia xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

43.56% Possession 41.17%

Team Comparison Tondela vs Casa Pia

78.29% Pass accuracy 71.94%

338.06 Passes per match 299.28

0.02 Goals prevented -0.13

14.47 Fouls committed 16.06

3.38 Goalkeeper saves 2.78

2.16 Offsides 1.51

17.56 Tackles per match 15.19

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Tondela vs Casa Pia prediction analysis

Review Tondela vs Casa Pia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights