What markets are included in the Tondela vs Estrela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Tondela vs Estrela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Tondela vs Estrela

Tondela vs Estrela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-09-21 14:30

Tondela

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Estrela

Away

Prediction Summary

41%

27%

31%

Under 2.5

56%

BTTS No

51%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Tondela (Home)

Goals scored / match0.76

Goals conceded / match1.24

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate35%

Estrela (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.88

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Tondela

LWWDL

Estrela

DDLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

41% +0.5 53%

29% +1.5 24%

6% +2.5 12%

0% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 6%

35% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Tondela averages 0.76 goals scored at home, while Estrela averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

41%

Draw

27%

Away Win

31%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Tondela(A) 2 - 0 Estrela Home

Sep 2025 Tondela 0 - 0 Estrela Draw

Feb 2023 Tondela(A) 0 - 0 Estrela Draw

Sep 2022 Tondela 1 - 1 Estrela Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Tondela won 1, drew 3 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Tondela — unbeaten run (home)1

Tondela — scoring streak (home)1

Estrela — winless run (away)9

Estrela — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Tondela Win (1)41%

Draw (X)27%

Estrela Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

41% +0.5 53%

29% +1.5 24%

6% +2.5 12%

0% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

59% -0.5 47%

71% -1.5 76%

94% -2.5 88%

100% -3.5 94%

100% -4.5 94%

Tondela vs Estrela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Tondela — scored (home)0.76

Tondela — conceded (home)1.24

Estrela — scored (away)1

Estrela — conceded (away)1.88

Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

Tondela — BTTS matches (home)35%

Estrela — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.562%

Under 7.538%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Tondela (home)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.9

Estrela (away)

Corners for3.1

Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Tondela

15 10 9 9 11

Estrela

7 6 5 13 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.591%

Under 2.59%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Tondela (home)

For2.4

Estrela (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Tondela — total shots (home)12.1

Estrela — total shots (away)8.6

Shots on Target

Tondela — on target (home)3.5

Estrela — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Tondela

Inside the box6.38

Outside the box4.21

Estrela

Inside the box5.97

Outside the box4.88

Player Shots Tondela

Pedro Maranhão

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target15%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target13%

Miro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

M. Aïko

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Siebatcheu

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Estrela

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target24%

Jovane Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target19%

S. Lopes Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target7%

Rodrigo Pinho

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target17%

A. Marcus

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela xG (home)1.12

Estrela xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

43.56% Possession 46.88%

Team Comparison Tondela vs Estrela

78.29% Pass accuracy 79.41%

338.06 Passes per match 354.35

0.02 Goals prevented 0.08

14.47 Fouls committed 14.44

3.38 Goalkeeper saves 2.91

2.16 Offsides 1.82

17.56 Tackles per match 15.65

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Tondela vs Estrela prediction analysis

Review Tondela vs Estrela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights