Prediction Analysis: Toronto FC vs New England Revolution
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Major League Soccer
2026-08-15
23:30
Toronto FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
New England Revolution
Away
Prediction Summary
1
37%
X
27%
2
37%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Toronto FC (Home)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate53%
New England Revolution (Away)
Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Toronto FC
LDDWL
New England Revolution
WDDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
76%
18%
+1.5
41%
12%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.
Toronto FC averages 1 goals scored at home, while New England Revolution averages 1.41 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jul 2026
Toronto FC(A)
0 - 0
New England Revolution
Draw
Sep 2025
Toronto FC(A)
1 - 1
New England Revolution
Draw
May 2025
Toronto FC
0 - 2
New England Revolution
Away
Apr 2024
Toronto FC
1 - 0
New England Revolution
Home
Mar 2024
Toronto FC(A)
1 - 0
New England Revolution
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Toronto FC — unbeaten run (home)7
Toronto FC — scoring streak (home)7
New England Revolution — winless run (away)3
New England Revolution — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Toronto FC Win (1)37%
Draw (X)27%
New England Revolution Win (2)37%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
76%
18%
+1.5
41%
12%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
24%
82%
-1.5
59%
88%
-2.5
76%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Toronto FC — scored (home)1
Toronto FC — conceded (home)1.12
New England Revolution — scored (away)1.41
New England Revolution — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.53
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Toronto FC — BTTS matches (home)53%
New England Revolution — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Toronto FC (home)
Corners for4.0
Corners against6.0
New England Revolution (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Toronto FC
9
10
12
15
12
New England Revolution
10
9
7
15
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Toronto FC (home)
For1.8
New England Revolution (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.50
Toronto FC
Shots Over 9.584%
Shots Over 11.571%
Shots Over 13.555%
Expected shots14.64
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.03
New England Revolution
Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.550%
Shots Over 13.533%
Expected shots11.86
On Target Over 3.563%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.47
Shots per Game
Toronto FC — total shots (home)10.8
New England Revolution — total shots (away)12.0
Shots on Target
Toronto FC — on target (home)3.6
New England Revolution — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Toronto FC
Inside the box6.38
Outside the box3.56
New England Revolution
Inside the box7.47
Outside the box4.68
Player Shots Toronto FC
F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
D. Mihailović
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Corbeanu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Insigne
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Longstaff
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots New England Revolution
Carles Gil
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Urruti
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target10%
L. Campana
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Chancalay
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target23%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC xG (home)0.95
New England Revolution xG (away)1.28
Average Possession
45.91%
Possession
49.62%
Team Comparison Toronto FC vs New England Revolution
83.13%
Pass accuracy
83.81%
407.47
Passes per match
450.32
0.01
Goals prevented
-0.04
11.56
Fouls committed
12
3.44
Goalkeeper saves
3.15
1.45
Offsides
2.16
17.36
Tackles per match
15.74
League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution prediction and preview
Preview Toronto FC vs New England Revolution with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights