Prediction Analysis: Torreense vs Penafiel
Torreense vs Penafiel prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Segunda Liga
2026-08-16
15:00
Torreense
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Penafiel
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
26%
2
28%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Torreense (Home)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate41%
Penafiel (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Torreense
WWWDW
Penafiel
LWLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
35%
24%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
41%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Torreense averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Penafiel averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
26%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Torreense
3 - 2
Penafiel
Home
Dec 2025
Torreense(A)
0 - 1
Penafiel
Away
May 2025
Torreense(A)
1 - 0
Penafiel
Home
Dec 2024
Torreense
0 - 1
Penafiel
Away
May 2024
Torreense(A)
1 - 1
Penafiel
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Torreense won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Torreense — unbeaten run (home)5
Torreense — scoring streak (home)5
Penafiel — winless run (away)3
Penafiel — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Torreense Win (1)46%
Draw (X)26%
Penafiel Win (2)28%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
35%
24%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
35%
53%
-1.5
65%
76%
-2.5
94%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Torreense vs Penafiel — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Torreense — scored (home)1.47
Torreense — conceded (home)1.06
Penafiel — scored (away)1.06
Penafiel — conceded (away)1.41
Model expected combined goals2.5
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Torreense — BTTS matches (home)41%
Penafiel — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.551%
Under 9.549%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.90
Per-Team Corners own matches
Torreense (home)
Corners for4.7
Corners against2.3
Penafiel (away)
Corners for6.5
Corners against6.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Torreense
6
0
0
0
0
Penafiel
0
5
0
0
0
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.597%
Under 2.53%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Torreense (home)
For2.3
Penafiel (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.538%
Under 19.562%
Over 22.529%
Under 22.571%
Over 25.522%
Under 25.578%
Expected total shots18.27
Torreense
Shots Over 9.546%
Shots Over 11.534%
Shots Over 13.524%
Expected shots9.98
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.55
Penafiel
Shots Over 9.534%
Shots Over 11.523%
Shots Over 13.515%
Expected shots8.30
On Target Over 3.532%
On Target Over 4.519%
On Target Over 5.510%
Expected on target2.86
Shots per Game
Torreense — total shots (home)14.7
Penafiel — total shots (away)11.8
Shots on Target
Torreense — on target (home)4.0
Penafiel — on target (away)2.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Torreense
Inside the box7.5
Outside the box5.13
Penafiel
Inside the box7.1
Outside the box5.2
Player Shots Torreense
Javi Vázquez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
I. Seydi
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
K. Zohi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
D. Jean
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Drammeh
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Penafiel
Zé Leite
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
Ãlvaro Santos
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Reko
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
S. Anzai
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gonçalo Negrão
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Torreense xG (home)0
Penafiel xG (away)0
Average Possession
46%
Possession
48.7%
Team Comparison Torreense vs Penafiel
78%
Pass accuracy
71.95%
338.63
Passes per match
350.2
0
Goals prevented
0
11.88
Fouls committed
13.7
3.25
Goalkeeper saves
3
2.38
Offsides
1.7
14.25
Tackles per match
16.2
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Torreense vs Penafiel prediction analysis
Review Torreense vs Penafiel with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Segunda Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Segunda Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights