Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Tottenham vs Manchester United

Tottenham vs Manchester United prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-05-21 19:00
Tottenham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Manchester United
Away

Prediction Summary

1
46%
X
24%
2
30%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Tottenham (Home)

Goals scored / match2.13
Goals conceded / match0.63
Over 2.5 rate50%
BTTS rate50%

Manchester United (Away)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Tottenham
WWWWD
Manchester United
LWWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 88%
63% +1.5 63%
50% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

Tottenham averages 2.13 goals scored at home, while Manchester United averages 1.75 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
46%
Draw
24%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
61%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Tottenham(A) 0 - 2 Manchester United Away
Nov 2025 Tottenham 2 - 2 Manchester United Draw
May 2025 Tottenham 1 - 0 Manchester United Home
Feb 2025 Tottenham 1 - 0 Manchester United Home
Dec 2024 Tottenham 4 - 3 Manchester United Home

In the last 5 meetings, Tottenham won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Tottenham — unbeaten run (home)8
Tottenham — scoring streak (home)8
Manchester United — winless run (away)1
Manchester United — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Tottenham Win (1)46%
Draw (X)24%
Manchester United Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 88%
63% +1.5 63%
50% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 12%
37% -1.5 37%
50% -2.5 75%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Tottenham vs Manchester United — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Tottenham — scored (home)2.13
Tottenham — conceded (home)0.63
Manchester United — scored (away)1.75
Manchester United — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals3.07

Both Teams To Score

Yes61%
No39%

Rate per Team

Tottenham — BTTS matches (home)50%
Manchester United — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)56.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.594%
Under 6.56%
Over 7.588%
Under 7.512%
Over 8.576%
Under 8.524%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Tottenham (home)

Corners for7.1
Corners against3.8

Manchester United (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Tottenham
12 15 14 11 9
Manchester United
13 10 9 2 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Tottenham (home)

For1.1

Manchester United (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Tottenham — total shots (home)15.6
Manchester United — total shots (away)16.9

Shots on Target

Tottenham — on target (home)6.4
Manchester United — on target (away)6.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Tottenham

Inside the box9.4
Outside the box3.53

Manchester United

Inside the box12.47
Outside the box5.07

Player Shots Tottenham

W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Moore
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
W. Odobert
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Sarr
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Johnson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Manchester United

M. Mount
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target22%
Bruno Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
K. Mainoo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Højlund
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Garnacho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Tottenham xG (home)1.66
Manchester United xG (away)2.15

Average Possession

50.93% Possession 58.33%

Team Comparison Tottenham vs Manchester United

83.07% Pass accuracy 85.27%
466.53 Passes per match 539.2
0.33 Goals prevented -0.18
10.67 Fouls committed 10.07
3.13 Goalkeeper saves 2.67
1.4 Offsides 1.57
15.33 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Tottenham vs Manchester United prediction analysis

Review Tottenham vs Manchester United with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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