Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Tottenham vs Villarreal

Tottenham vs Villarreal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-09-16 19:00
Tottenham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
Villarreal
Away

Prediction Summary

1
87%
X
11%
2
2%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS No
83%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Tottenham (Home)

Goals scored / match2.6
Goals conceded / match0.4
Over 2.5 rate60%
BTTS rate20%

Villarreal (Away)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match2.25
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Team Form last 5 matches

Tottenham
WLWWW
Villarreal
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 0%
80% +1.5 0%
60% +2.5 0%
20% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
20% BTTS 0%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is High.

Tottenham averages 2.6 goals scored at home, while Villarreal averages 0 goals scored away.

Model Strength
87%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
87%
Draw
11%
Away Win
2%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
17%

Head-to-Head last 1

Sep 2025 Tottenham 1 - 0 Villarreal Home

In the last 1 meetings, Tottenham won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Tottenham — unbeaten run (home)5
Tottenham — scoring streak (home)5
Villarreal — winless run (away)4
Villarreal — clean sheets (away, last 4)0 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Tottenham Win (1)87%
Draw (X)11%
Villarreal Win (2)2%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 0%
80% +1.5 0%
60% +2.5 0%
20% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 100%
20% -1.5 100%
40% -2.5 100%
80% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Tottenham vs Villarreal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Tottenham — scored (home)2.6
Tottenham — conceded (home)0.4
Villarreal — scored (away)0
Villarreal — conceded (away)2.25
Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes17%
No83%

Rate per Team

Tottenham — BTTS matches (home)20%
Villarreal — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)10%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.563%
Under 5.537%
Over 6.530%
Under 6.570%
Over 7.530%
Under 7.570%
Over 8.530%
Under 8.570%
Over 9.520%
Under 9.580%
Over 10.520%
Under 10.580%
Expected total corners (blended average)7.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Tottenham (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against4.2

Villarreal (away)

Corners for2.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Tottenham
11 6 5 6 14
Villarreal
5 5 10 12 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Tottenham (home)

For2.4

Villarreal (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Tottenham — total shots (home)14.6
Villarreal — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Tottenham — on target (home)6.6
Villarreal — on target (away)2.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Tottenham

Inside the box9.2
Outside the box3.7

Villarreal

Inside the box7.88
Outside the box5.75

Player Shots Tottenham

M. Tel
Shots on Target/Game2.7
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target67%
D. Solanke
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target33%
Richarlison
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
R. Kolo Muani
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Kudus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Villarreal

N. Pépé
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Gueye
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target0%
T. Oluwaseyi
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target0%
Rafa Marín
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Santi Comesaña
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Tottenham xG (home)1.78
Villarreal xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

49.9% Possession 42.25%

Team Comparison Tottenham vs Villarreal

83.8% Pass accuracy 83.13%
432.3 Passes per match 394.13
-0.32 Goals prevented -0.07
10.9 Fouls committed 12.75
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
1.1 Offsides 1.57
15 Tackles per match 17.25

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Tottenham vs Villarreal prediction analysis

Review Tottenham vs Villarreal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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