Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Auxerre

Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2024-12-01 16:00
Toulouse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
56%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Auxerre
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
24%
2
29%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Toulouse (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate71%

Auxerre (Away)

Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Toulouse
WDWDL
Auxerre
LDLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 82%
29% +1.5 41%
0% +2.5 12%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.

Toulouse averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Auxerre averages 1.41 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
24%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Toulouse 0 - 0 Auxerre Draw
Sep 2025 Toulouse(A) 0 - 1 Auxerre Away
Feb 2025 Toulouse(A) 2 - 2 Auxerre Draw
Dec 2024 Toulouse 2 - 0 Auxerre Home
May 2023 Toulouse 1 - 1 Auxerre Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2
Toulouse — scoring streak (home)5
Auxerre — winless run (away)1
Auxerre — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Toulouse Win (1)47%
Draw (X)24%
Auxerre Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 82%
29% +1.5 41%
0% +2.5 12%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 18%
71% -1.5 59%
100% -2.5 88%
100% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Toulouse vs Auxerre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Toulouse — scored (home)1.18
Toulouse — conceded (home)1.29
Auxerre — scored (away)1.41
Auxerre — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.92

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)71%
Auxerre — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)68%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Toulouse (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against3.2

Auxerre (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Toulouse
9 8 11 3 13
Auxerre
12 9 9 10 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.591%
Under 0.59%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Toulouse (home)

For1.6

Auxerre (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Toulouse — total shots (home)12.3
Auxerre — total shots (away)10.6

Shots on Target

Toulouse — on target (home)4.8
Auxerre — on target (away)4.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Toulouse

Inside the box8.88
Outside the box2.97

Auxerre

Inside the box7.32
Outside the box3.85

Player Shots Toulouse

W. Kamanzi
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
G. Suazo
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target7%
Z. Aboukhlal
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target23%
N. Edjouma
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
Y. Gboho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Auxerre

R. Raveloson
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Perrin
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target18%
K. Danois
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target5%
T. Bair
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Onaiwu
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Toulouse xG (home)1.46
Auxerre xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

44.74% Possession 42.47%

Team Comparison Toulouse vs Auxerre

80.18% Pass accuracy 78.35%
396.94 Passes per match 376.76
-0.09 Goals prevented 0.1
12.97 Fouls committed 11.88
2 Goalkeeper saves 3.76
1.77 Offsides 1.41
17.82 Tackles per match 19.32

League average xG this season is 1.51 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction analysis

Review Toulouse vs Auxerre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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