Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Le Havre

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-11-02 16:15
Toulouse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
71%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Le Havre
Away

Prediction Summary

1
58%
X
20%
2
23%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Toulouse (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate41%

Le Havre (Away)

Goals scored / match0.71
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

Toulouse
WWDLL
Le Havre
WLDDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 53%
47% +1.5 18%
18% +2.5 0%
12% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
41% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 71%. Model confidence is High.

Toulouse averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Le Havre averages 0.71 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
58%
Draw
20%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
68%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Toulouse(A) 1 - 2 Le Havre Away
Nov 2025 Toulouse 0 - 0 Le Havre Draw
Feb 2025 Toulouse(A) 4 - 1 Le Havre Home
Sep 2024 Toulouse 2 - 0 Le Havre Home
Mar 2024 Toulouse(A) 0 - 1 Le Havre Away

In the last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2
Toulouse — scoring streak (home)2
Le Havre — winless run (away)0
Le Havre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Toulouse Win (1)58%
Draw (X)20%
Le Havre Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 53%
47% +1.5 18%
18% +2.5 0%
12% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 47%
53% -1.5 82%
82% -2.5 100%
88% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

Toulouse vs Le Havre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Toulouse — scored (home)1.47
Toulouse — conceded (home)1.41
Le Havre — scored (away)0.71
Le Havre — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals3.7

Both Teams To Score

Yes68%
No32%

Rate per Team

Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)41%
Le Havre — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)41%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.571%
Under 6.529%
Over 7.559%
Under 7.541%
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Toulouse (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.4

Le Havre (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Toulouse
6 15 6 11 15
Le Havre
7 10 19 3 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Toulouse (home)

For1.9

Le Havre (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Toulouse — total shots (home)14.7
Le Havre — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Toulouse — on target (home)4.8
Le Havre — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Toulouse

Inside the box8.36
Outside the box4.48

Le Havre

Inside the box6.76
Outside the box4.18

Player Shots Toulouse

P. Diop
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%
F. Magri
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%
Emersonn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target11%
Julián Vignolo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
Y. Gboho
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Le Havre

I. Soumaré
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Obougoujacquet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Samatta
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
R. Khadra
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Touré
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Toulouse xG (home)1.31
Le Havre xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

42.24% Possession 46.82%

Team Comparison Toulouse vs Le Havre

80.55% Pass accuracy 80.29%
374 Passes per match 376.03
0.07 Goals prevented -0.05
14.36 Fouls committed 13.71
2.58 Goalkeeper saves 3
1.33 Offsides 2.3
16.36 Tackles per match 17.44

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction analysis

Review Toulouse vs Le Havre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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