What markets are included in the Toulouse vs Lens prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Toulouse vs Lens prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Lens

Toulouse vs Lens prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-01-02 19:45

Toulouse

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

55%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Lens

Away

Prediction Summary

38%

25%

38%

Over 2.5

55%

BTTS Yes

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Toulouse (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match1.41

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate41%

Lens (Away)

Goals scored / match1.82

Goals conceded / match1.29

Over 2.5 rate29%

BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Toulouse

WWDLL

Lens

WLWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 76%

47% +1.5 53%

18% +2.5 29%

12% +3.5 18%

6% +4.5 6%

41% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.

Toulouse averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Lens averages 1.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

38%

Draw

25%

Away Win

38%

Over 2.5

55%

BTTS Yes

58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Toulouse(A) 1 - 4 Lens Away

Apr 2026 Toulouse(A) 2 - 3 Lens Away

Jan 2026 Toulouse 0 - 3 Lens Away

May 2025 Toulouse 1 - 1 Lens Draw

Jan 2025 Toulouse(A) 1 - 0 Lens Home

In the last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2

Toulouse — scoring streak (home)2

Lens — winless run (away)0

Lens — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Toulouse Win (1)38%

Draw (X)25%

Lens Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 76%

47% +1.5 53%

18% +2.5 29%

12% +3.5 18%

6% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 24%

53% -1.5 47%

82% -2.5 71%

88% -3.5 82%

94% -4.5 94%

Toulouse vs Lens — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Toulouse — scored (home)1.47

Toulouse — conceded (home)1.41

Lens — scored (away)1.82

Lens — conceded (away)1.29

Model expected combined goals2.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%

No42%

Rate per Team

Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)41%

Lens — BTTS matches (away)59%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%

Under 4.59%

Over 5.585%

Under 5.515%

Over 6.568%

Under 6.532%

Over 7.559%

Under 7.541%

Over 8.556%

Under 8.544%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Toulouse (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.4

Lens (away)

Corners for5.6

Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Toulouse

6 15 6 11 15

Lens

6 15 11 9 28

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Toulouse (home)

For1.9

Lens (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Toulouse — total shots (home)14.7

Lens — total shots (away)14.6

Shots on Target

Toulouse — on target (home)4.8

Lens — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Toulouse

Inside the box8.36

Outside the box4.48

Lens

Inside the box11.47

Outside the box4.97

Player Shots Toulouse

P. Diop

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target13%

F. Magri

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target12%

Emersonn

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target11%

Julián Vignolo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target15%

Y. Gboho

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Lens

O. Édouard

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target69%

+1.5 On Target34%

W. Saïd

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target31%

F. Thauvin

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target21%

M. Udol

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

M. Sangaré

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Toulouse xG (home)1.31

Lens xG (away)1.99

Average Possession

42.24% Possession 51.12%

Team Comparison Toulouse vs Lens

80.55% Pass accuracy 84.24%

374 Passes per match 463.53

0.07 Goals prevented 0.17

14.36 Fouls committed 12.71

2.58 Goalkeeper saves 2.48

1.33 Offsides 2.23

16.36 Tackles per match 18.74

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Toulouse vs Lens prediction analysis

Review Toulouse vs Lens with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights