Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Lille
Toulouse vs Lille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-05
15:00
Toulouse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lille
Away
Prediction Summary
1
33%
X
25%
2
42%
+2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
57%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Toulouse (Home)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate41%
Lille (Away)
Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.18
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate29%
Team Form last 5 matches
Toulouse
WWDLL
Lille
LWDWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
41%
18%
+2.5
24%
12%
+3.5
18%
6%
+4.5
6%
41%
BTTS
29%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.
Toulouse averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Lille averages 1.65 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
33%
Draw
25%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Toulouse
0 - 4
Lille
Away
Sep 2025
Toulouse(A)
1 - 2
Lille
Away
Apr 2025
Toulouse
1 - 2
Lille
Away
Oct 2024
Toulouse(A)
1 - 2
Lille
Away
Feb 2024
Toulouse
3 - 1
Lille
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2
Toulouse — scoring streak (home)2
Lille — winless run (away)0
Lille — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Toulouse Win (1)33%
Draw (X)25%
Lille Win (2)42%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
41%
18%
+2.5
24%
12%
+3.5
18%
6%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
35%
53%
-1.5
59%
82%
-2.5
76%
88%
-3.5
82%
94%
-4.5
94%
Toulouse vs Lille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Toulouse — scored (home)1.47
Toulouse — conceded (home)1.41
Lille — scored (away)1.65
Lille — conceded (away)1.18
Model expected combined goals2.85
Both Teams To Score
Yes57%
No43%
Rate per Team
Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)41%
Lille — BTTS matches (away)29%
Combined (simple average)35%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Toulouse (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.4
Lille (away)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Toulouse
6
15
6
11
15
Lille
8
10
19
7
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Toulouse (home)
For1.9
Lille (away)
For2.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.567%
Under 19.533%
Over 22.552%
Under 22.548%
Over 25.538%
Under 25.562%
Expected total shots23.80
Toulouse
Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.553%
Shots Over 13.538%
Expected shots12.39
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.43
Lille
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.530%
Expected shots11.42
On Target Over 3.555%
On Target Over 4.538%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.06
Shots per Game
Toulouse — total shots (home)14.7
Lille — total shots (away)12.5
Shots on Target
Toulouse — on target (home)4.8
Lille — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Toulouse
Inside the box8.36
Outside the box4.48
Lille
Inside the box9.56
Outside the box4.06
Player Shots Toulouse
P. Diop
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%
F. Magri
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%
Emersonn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Vignolo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
Y. Gboho
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Lille
M. Fernandez-Pardo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target31%
H. Igamane
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
O. Giroud
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target10%
H. Haraldsson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Diaoune
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Toulouse xG (home)1.31
Lille xG (away)1.63
Average Possession
42.24%
Possession
55.85%
Team Comparison Toulouse vs Lille
80.55%
Pass accuracy
85.09%
374
Passes per match
496.88
0.07
Goals prevented
0.2
14.36
Fouls committed
10.88
2.58
Goalkeeper saves
2.24
1.33
Offsides
1.47
16.36
Tackles per match
15.15
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Toulouse vs Lille prediction analysis
Review Toulouse vs Lille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights