Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Lyon
Toulouse vs Lyon prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-08-22
15:00
Toulouse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lyon
Away
Prediction Summary
1
37%
X
25%
2
37%
+2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Toulouse (Home)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate41%
Lyon (Away)
Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Toulouse
WWDLL
Lyon
LLWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
71%
47%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
6%
6%
+4.5
6%
41%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.
Toulouse averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Lyon averages 1.35 goals scored away.
Model Strength
56%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
37%
Draw
25%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Toulouse
2 - 1
Lyon
Home
Oct 2025
Toulouse(A)
2 - 1
Lyon
Home
Jan 2025
Toulouse(A)
0 - 0
Lyon
Draw
Sep 2024
Toulouse
1 - 2
Lyon
Away
Mar 2024
Toulouse
2 - 3
Lyon
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2
Toulouse — scoring streak (home)2
Lyon — winless run (away)1
Lyon — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Toulouse Win (1)37%
Draw (X)25%
Lyon Win (2)37%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
71%
47%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
6%
6%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
29%
53%
-1.5
65%
82%
-2.5
82%
88%
-3.5
94%
94%
-4.5
94%
Toulouse vs Lyon — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Toulouse — scored (home)1.47
Toulouse — conceded (home)1.41
Lyon — scored (away)1.35
Lyon — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals2.77
Both Teams To Score
Yes56%
No44%
Rate per Team
Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)41%
Lyon — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Toulouse (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.4
Lyon (away)
Corners for5.2
Corners against5.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Toulouse
6
15
6
11
15
Lyon
18
9
12
15
28
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Toulouse (home)
For1.9
Lyon (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.67
Toulouse
Shots Over 9.576%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.53
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.73
Lyon
Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.14
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.19
Shots per Game
Toulouse — total shots (home)14.7
Lyon — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Toulouse — on target (home)4.8
Lyon — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Toulouse
Inside the box8.36
Outside the box4.48
Lyon
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box3.94
Player Shots Toulouse
P. Diop
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%
F. Magri
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%
Emersonn
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target11%
J. Vignolo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
Y. Gboho
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots Lyon
Endrick
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target44%
C. Tolisso
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Šulc
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Satriano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Toulouse xG (home)1.31
Lyon xG (away)1.57
Average Possession
42.24%
Possession
54.62%
Team Comparison Toulouse vs Lyon
80.55%
Pass accuracy
84.71%
374
Passes per match
466.88
0.07
Goals prevented
0.12
14.36
Fouls committed
13
2.58
Goalkeeper saves
2.76
1.33
Offsides
1.4
16.36
Tackles per match
14.59
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Toulouse vs Lyon prediction analysis
Review Toulouse vs Lyon with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights