Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Toulouse vs Saint Etienne

Toulouse vs Saint Etienne prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2024-12-13 19:45
Toulouse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
Saint Etienne
Away

Prediction Summary

1
74%
X
16%
2
10%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Toulouse (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate71%

Saint Etienne (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match2.59
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Toulouse
WDWDL
Saint Etienne
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 65%
29% +1.5 24%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is High.

Toulouse averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Saint Etienne averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
74%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
74%
Draw
16%
Away Win
10%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 3

May 2025 Toulouse(A) 3 - 2 Saint Etienne Home
Dec 2024 Toulouse 2 - 1 Saint Etienne Home
Sep 2019 Toulouse(A) 2 - 2 Saint Etienne Draw

In the last 3 meetings, Toulouse won 2, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Toulouse — unbeaten run (home)2
Toulouse — scoring streak (home)5
Saint Etienne — winless run (away)0
Saint Etienne — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Toulouse Win (1)74%
Draw (X)16%
Saint Etienne Win (2)10%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 65%
29% +1.5 24%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 35%
71% -1.5 76%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Toulouse vs Saint Etienne — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Toulouse — scored (home)1.18
Toulouse — conceded (home)1.29
Saint Etienne — scored (away)0.88
Saint Etienne — conceded (away)2.59
Model expected combined goals3.07

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Toulouse — BTTS matches (home)71%
Saint Etienne — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)62%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Toulouse (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against3.2

Saint Etienne (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Toulouse
9 8 11 3 13
Saint Etienne
14 13 11 9 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Toulouse (home)

For1.6

Saint Etienne (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Toulouse — total shots (home)12.3
Saint Etienne — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Toulouse — on target (home)4.8
Saint Etienne — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Toulouse

Inside the box8.88
Outside the box2.97

Saint Etienne

Inside the box6.32
Outside the box4.56

Player Shots Toulouse

W. Kamanzi
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
G. Suazo
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target7%
Z. Aboukhlal
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target23%
N. Edjouma
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
Y. Gboho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Saint Etienne

M. Cafaro
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target20%
I. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Z. Davitashvili
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target27%
L. Stassin
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target18%
P. Ekwah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Toulouse xG (home)1.46
Saint Etienne xG (away)1.1

Average Possession

44.74% Possession 47.35%

Team Comparison Toulouse vs Saint Etienne

80.18% Pass accuracy 81.56%
396.94 Passes per match 443.91
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.12
12.97 Fouls committed 13.21
2 Goalkeeper saves 3.97
1.77 Offsides 1.59
17.82 Tackles per match 17.65

League average xG this season is 1.51 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Toulouse vs Saint Etienne prediction analysis

Review Toulouse vs Saint Etienne with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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