Prediction Analysis: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-08-08
17:30
TSV Hartberg
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Sturm Graz
Away
Prediction Summary
1
24%
X
23%
2
53%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
TSV Hartberg (Home)
Goals scored / match1.19
Goals conceded / match1.56
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate63%
Sturm Graz (Away)
Goals scored / match2.13
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate31%
BTTS rate56%
Team Form last 5 matches
TSV Hartberg
WLLLW
Sturm Graz
WWDDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
94%
44%
+1.5
63%
0%
+2.5
31%
0%
+3.5
19%
0%
+4.5
6%
63%
BTTS
56%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
TSV Hartberg averages 1.19 goals scored at home, while Sturm Graz averages 2.13 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
24%
Draw
23%
Away Win
53%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
TSV Hartberg
2 - 4
Sturm Graz
Away
Apr 2026
TSV Hartberg(A)
0 - 0
Sturm Graz
Draw
Nov 2025
TSV Hartberg
0 - 1
Sturm Graz
Away
Sep 2025
TSV Hartberg(A)
0 - 1
Sturm Graz
Away
Nov 2024
TSV Hartberg
1 - 2
Sturm Graz
Away
In the last 5 meetings, TSV Hartberg won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
TSV Hartberg — unbeaten run (home)0
TSV Hartberg — scoring streak (home)4
Sturm Graz — winless run (away)0
Sturm Graz — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
TSV Hartberg Win (1)24%
Draw (X)23%
Sturm Graz Win (2)53%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
94%
44%
+1.5
63%
0%
+2.5
31%
0%
+3.5
19%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
6%
56%
-1.5
37%
100%
-2.5
69%
100%
-3.5
81%
100%
-4.5
94%
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
TSV Hartberg — scored (home)1.19
TSV Hartberg — conceded (home)1.56
Sturm Graz — scored (away)2.13
Sturm Graz — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
TSV Hartberg — BTTS matches (home)63%
Sturm Graz — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)59.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
TSV Hartberg (home)
Corners for3.4
Corners against4.4
Sturm Graz (away)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
TSV Hartberg
12
8
8
9
15
Sturm Graz
12
7
13
9
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
TSV Hartberg (home)
For2.2
Sturm Graz (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.544%
Under 25.556%
Expected total shots25.13
TSV Hartberg
Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.20
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.95
Sturm Graz
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.92
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.42
Shots per Game
TSV Hartberg — total shots (home)9.8
Sturm Graz — total shots (away)15.4
Shots on Target
TSV Hartberg — on target (home)3.6
Sturm Graz — on target (away)5.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
TSV Hartberg
Inside the box5.5
Outside the box3.66
Sturm Graz
Inside the box9.91
Outside the box5.78
Player Shots TSV Hartberg
E. Havel
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Heil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target4%
D. Korherr
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Hoffmann
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Drew
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Sturm Graz
O. Kiteishvili
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target28%
M. Malone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Johnston
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Grgić
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
TSV Hartberg xG (home)0.87
Sturm Graz xG (away)1.68
Average Possession
38.94%
Possession
53.97%
Team Comparison TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
72.47%
Pass accuracy
75.13%
321.31
Passes per match
388.34
0.17
Goals prevented
0.11
10.94
Fouls committed
11.59
2.81
Goalkeeper saves
2.59
1.16
Offsides
1.57
15.94
Tackles per match
17.69
League average xG this season is 1.34 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz prediction analysis
Review TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights