Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: U. Catolica vs Nublense

U. Catolica vs Nublense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera División 2025-10-09 23:30
U. Catolica
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Nublense
Away

Prediction Summary

1
57%
X
23%
2
20%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

U. Catolica (Home)

Goals scored / match1.73
Goals conceded / match0.87
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate40%

Nublense (Away)

Goals scored / match0.87
Goals conceded / match1.73
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

U. Catolica
WDWWL
Nublense
WLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

87% +0.5 60%
53% +1.5 27%
13% +2.5 0%
7% +3.5 0%
7% +4.5 0%
40% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.

U. Catolica averages 1.73 goals scored at home, while Nublense averages 0.87 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
57%
Draw
23%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 2

Oct 2025 U. Catolica 1 - 0 Nublense Home
Mar 2025 U. Catolica(A) 1 - 1 Nublense Draw

In the last 2 meetings, U. Catolica won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

U. Catolica — unbeaten run (home)2
U. Catolica — scoring streak (home)2
Nublense — winless run (away)6
Nublense — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

U. Catolica Win (1)57%
Draw (X)23%
Nublense Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

87% +0.5 60%
53% +1.5 27%
13% +2.5 0%
7% +3.5 0%
7% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

13% -0.5 40%
47% -1.5 73%
87% -2.5 100%
93% -3.5 100%
93% -4.5 100%

U. Catolica vs Nublense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

U. Catolica — scored (home)1.73
U. Catolica — conceded (home)0.87
Nublense — scored (away)0.87
Nublense — conceded (away)1.73
Model expected combined goals2.75

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

U. Catolica — BTTS matches (home)40%
Nublense — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)40%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.577%
Under 4.523%
Over 5.574%
Under 5.526%
Over 6.570%
Under 6.530%
Over 7.557%
Under 7.543%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

U. Catolica (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against3.7

Nublense (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

U. Catolica
10 13 14 10 11
Nublense
5 3 5 5 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.597%
Under 2.53%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1

Yellow Cards per Team

U. Catolica (home)

For2.9

Nublense (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

U. Catolica — total shots (home)13.0
Nublense — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

U. Catolica — on target (home)4.5
Nublense — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

U. Catolica

Inside the box7.63
Outside the box4.27

Nublense

Inside the box8.13
Outside the box4.6

Player Shots U. Catolica

F. Zampedri
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
C. Montes
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target21%
V. Carcamo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
E. Bello
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Nublense

G. Sosa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target15%
P. Rubio
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Graciani
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
F. Mateos
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target4%
Bernardo Cerezo
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

U. Catolica xG (home)1.22
Nublense xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

54.2% Possession 52.77%

Team Comparison U. Catolica vs Nublense

80.53% Pass accuracy 78.17%
398.13 Passes per match 411.83
0 Goals prevented 0
13.4 Fouls committed 12.8
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 3.17
1.53 Offsides 2.54
14.33 Tackles per match 15.97

League average xG this season is 1.45 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

U. Catolica vs Nublense prediction analysis

Review U. Catolica vs Nublense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera División.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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