Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Udinese vs Fiorentina

Udinese vs Fiorentina prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie A 2025-05-25 18:45
Udinese
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Fiorentina
Away

Prediction Summary

1
31%
X
27%
2
42%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Udinese (Home)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Fiorentina (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Udinese
LLLWD
Fiorentina
WWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 42%
11% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Udinese averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Fiorentina averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Udinese 3 - 0 Fiorentina Home
Dec 2025 Udinese(A) 1 - 5 Fiorentina Away
May 2025 Udinese 2 - 3 Fiorentina Away
Dec 2024 Udinese(A) 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home
Jan 2024 Udinese(A) 2 - 2 Fiorentina Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Udinese won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Udinese — unbeaten run (home)0
Udinese — scoring streak (home)2
Fiorentina — winless run (away)0
Fiorentina — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Udinese Win (1)31%
Draw (X)27%
Fiorentina Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 42%
11% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 21%
63% -1.5 58%
89% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Udinese vs Fiorentina — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Udinese — scored (home)1.16
Udinese — conceded (home)1.42
Fiorentina — scored (away)1.47
Fiorentina — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Udinese — BTTS matches (home)42%
Fiorentina — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.571%
Under 6.529%
Over 7.561%
Under 7.539%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Udinese (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.9

Fiorentina (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against4.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Udinese
11 9 7 15 10
Fiorentina
7 11 6 6 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Udinese (home)

For2.2

Fiorentina (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Udinese — total shots (home)11.9
Fiorentina — total shots (away)11.9

Shots on Target

Udinese — on target (home)3.8
Fiorentina — on target (away)4.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Udinese

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box4.32

Fiorentina

Inside the box7.41
Outside the box4.38

Player Shots Udinese

F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target24%
K. Davis
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Lucca
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target21%
C. Kabasele
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Ekkelenkamp
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target38%
C. Biraghi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Ranieri
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target6%
R. Mandragora
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Guðmundsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Udinese xG (home)1.05
Fiorentina xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

47.24% Possession 51.11%

Team Comparison Udinese vs Fiorentina

80.89% Pass accuracy 82.78%
388.42 Passes per match 427.43
-0.07 Goals prevented 0.04
14.21 Fouls committed 11.59
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.89
1.32 Offsides 2.3
14.82 Tackles per match 13.95

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Udinese vs Fiorentina prediction analysis

Review Udinese vs Fiorentina with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top