Prediction Analysis: Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-01-10
14:30
Union Berlin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
61%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Prediction Summary
1
52%
X
22%
2
26%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Union Berlin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate71%
FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union Berlin
WWDLL
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
82%
+0.5
76%
47%
+1.5
47%
18%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
71%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.
Union Berlin averages 1.53 goals scored at home, while FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.35 goals scored away.
Model Strength
61%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
52%
Draw
22%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Union Berlin(A)
3 - 1
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Jan 2026
Union Berlin
2 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
Jan 2025
Union Berlin
2 - 1
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Aug 2024
Union Berlin(A)
1 - 1
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
Feb 2024
Union Berlin(A)
1 - 1
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Union Berlin — unbeaten run (home)2
Union Berlin — scoring streak (home)7
FSV Mainz 05 — winless run (away)0
FSV Mainz 05 — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union Berlin Win (1)52%
Draw (X)22%
FSV Mainz 05 Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
82%
+0.5
76%
47%
+1.5
47%
18%
+2.5
6%
6%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
18%
-0.5
24%
53%
-1.5
53%
82%
-2.5
94%
94%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
100%
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union Berlin — scored (home)1.53
Union Berlin — conceded (home)1.53
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (away)1.35
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals3.14
Both Teams To Score
Yes61%
No39%
Rate per Team
Union Berlin — BTTS matches (home)71%
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)68%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union Berlin (home)
Corners for5.2
Corners against4.5
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
Corners for3.9
Corners against5.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union Berlin
15
14
7
15
13
FSV Mainz 05
6
8
14
15
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Union Berlin (home)
For2.5
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Union Berlin — total shots (home)13.2
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (away)10.5
Shots on Target
Union Berlin — on target (home)4.4
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union Berlin
Inside the box9.06
Outside the box3.41
FSV Mainz 05
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box2.85
Player Shots Union Berlin
A. Ilić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target14%
Ilyas Ansah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Schäfer
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target4%
D. Doekhi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots FSV Mainz 05
P. Tietz
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin xG (home)1.35
FSV Mainz 05 xG (away)1.61
Average Possession
40.24%
Possession
43.97%
Team Comparison Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05
71.44%
Pass accuracy
74.56%
334.44
Passes per match
370.74
-0.02
Goals prevented
0.33
12.26
Fouls committed
10.97
2.71
Goalkeeper saves
3.41
1.67
Offsides
2.39
14.76
Tackles per match
15.35
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction analysis
Review Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights