Prediction Analysis: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-12
19:30
Union Berlin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
RB Leipzig
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
25%
2
38%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Union Berlin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate71%
RB Leipzig (Away)
Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union Berlin
WWDLL
RB Leipzig
LWLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
82%
+0.5
82%
47%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
71%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.
Union Berlin averages 1.53 goals scored at home, while RB Leipzig averages 1.53 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
25%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Union Berlin(A)
1 - 3
RB Leipzig
Away
Dec 2025
Union Berlin
3 - 1
RB Leipzig
Home
Feb 2025
Union Berlin
0 - 0
RB Leipzig
Draw
Sep 2024
Union Berlin(A)
0 - 0
RB Leipzig
Draw
Feb 2024
Union Berlin(A)
0 - 2
RB Leipzig
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Union Berlin — unbeaten run (home)2
Union Berlin — scoring streak (home)7
RB Leipzig — winless run (away)2
RB Leipzig — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union Berlin Win (1)38%
Draw (X)25%
RB Leipzig Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
82%
+0.5
82%
47%
+1.5
35%
18%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
18%
-0.5
18%
53%
-1.5
65%
82%
-2.5
82%
94%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
94%
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union Berlin — scored (home)1.53
Union Berlin — conceded (home)1.53
RB Leipzig — scored (away)1.53
RB Leipzig — conceded (away)1.59
Model expected combined goals2.86
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
Union Berlin — BTTS matches (home)71%
RB Leipzig — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)65%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.585%
Under 4.515%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union Berlin (home)
Corners for5.2
Corners against4.5
RB Leipzig (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against4.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union Berlin
15
14
7
15
13
RB Leipzig
10
14
10
8
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Union Berlin (home)
For2.5
RB Leipzig (away)
For1.7
Shots per Game
Union Berlin — total shots (home)13.2
RB Leipzig — total shots (away)14.3
Shots on Target
Union Berlin — on target (home)4.4
RB Leipzig — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union Berlin
Inside the box9.06
Outside the box3.41
RB Leipzig
Inside the box11.29
Outside the box4.5
Player Shots Union Berlin
A. Ilić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target14%
Ilyas Ansah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Schäfer
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target4%
D. Doekhi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots RB Leipzig
C. Baumgartner
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
Rômulo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target20%
Y. Diomande
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
B. Gruda
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Ouédraogo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target26%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin xG (home)1.35
RB Leipzig xG (away)1.98
Average Possession
40.24%
Possession
53.88%
Team Comparison Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
71.44%
Pass accuracy
84.15%
334.44
Passes per match
503
-0.02
Goals prevented
0.05
12.26
Fouls committed
9.26
2.71
Goalkeeper saves
2.47
1.67
Offsides
1.5
14.76
Tackles per match
15.12
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig prediction analysis
Review Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights