Prediction Analysis: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-05-03
13:30
Union Berlin
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Werder Bremen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
39%
X
24%
2
37%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Union Berlin (Home)
Goals scored / match1.12
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate59%
Werder Bremen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1.82
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union Berlin
WLDDD
Werder Bremen
WDDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
82%
29%
+1.5
71%
6%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
Union Berlin averages 1.12 goals scored at home, while Werder Bremen averages 1.94 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
39%
Draw
24%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Union Berlin
1 - 4
Werder Bremen
Away
Oct 2025
Union Berlin(A)
0 - 1
Werder Bremen
Away
May 2025
Union Berlin
2 - 2
Werder Bremen
Draw
Dec 2024
Union Berlin(A)
1 - 4
Werder Bremen
Away
Mar 2024
Union Berlin
2 - 1
Werder Bremen
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Union Berlin — unbeaten run (home)0
Union Berlin — scoring streak (home)0
Werder Bremen — winless run (away)0
Werder Bremen — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union Berlin Win (1)39%
Draw (X)24%
Werder Bremen Win (2)37%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
82%
29%
+1.5
71%
6%
+2.5
24%
6%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
18%
71%
-1.5
29%
94%
-2.5
76%
94%
-3.5
82%
100%
-4.5
100%
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union Berlin — scored (home)1.12
Union Berlin — conceded (home)1.29
Werder Bremen — scored (away)1.94
Werder Bremen — conceded (away)1.82
Model expected combined goals2.97
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Union Berlin — BTTS matches (home)59%
Werder Bremen — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)59%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.527%
Under 10.573%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union Berlin (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against4.5
Werder Bremen (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union Berlin
8
14
10
3
4
Werder Bremen
9
4
10
15
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Union Berlin (home)
For2.2
Werder Bremen (away)
For2.1
Shots per Game
Union Berlin — total shots (home)13.5
Werder Bremen — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
Union Berlin — on target (home)3.9
Werder Bremen — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union Berlin
Inside the box8.26
Outside the box4
Werder Bremen
Inside the box9.47
Outside the box3.15
Player Shots Union Berlin
L. Tousart
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target13%
Y. Vertessen
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target12%
A. Ilić
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target15%
Jeong Woo-Yeong
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots Werder Bremen
K. Topp
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target43%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Stage
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin xG (home)1.09
Werder Bremen xG (away)1.51
Average Possession
40.41%
Possession
49.94%
Team Comparison Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen
73.65%
Pass accuracy
80.94%
359.03
Passes per match
469.15
0.06
Goals prevented
-0
12.32
Fouls committed
9.85
2.68
Goalkeeper saves
3.06
2.03
Offsides
2.18
15.94
Tackles per match
16.03
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen prediction analysis
Review Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights