Prediction Analysis: Union La Calera vs D. La Serena
Union La Calera vs D. La Serena prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera División
2025-08-16
00:00
Union La Calera
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
D. La Serena
Away
Prediction Summary
1
50%
X
25%
2
25%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Union La Calera (Home)
Goals scored / match1.2
Goals conceded / match1.07
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate40%
D. La Serena (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.87
Over 2.5 rate7%
BTTS rate80%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union La Calera
LLLLL
D. La Serena
LLLLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
73%
+0.5
80%
27%
+1.5
13%
13%
+2.5
7%
7%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
40%
BTTS
80%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Union La Calera averages 1.2 goals scored at home, while D. La Serena averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
52%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
50%
Draw
25%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 2
Aug 2025
Union La Calera
1 - 1
D. La Serena
Draw
Mar 2025
Union La Calera(A)
0 - 1
D. La Serena
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Union La Calera won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Union La Calera — unbeaten run (home)0
Union La Calera — scoring streak (home)0
D. La Serena — winless run (away)2
D. La Serena — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union La Calera Win (1)50%
Draw (X)25%
D. La Serena Win (2)25%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
73%
+0.5
80%
27%
+1.5
13%
13%
+2.5
7%
7%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
27%
-0.5
20%
73%
-1.5
87%
87%
-2.5
93%
93%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Union La Calera vs D. La Serena — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union La Calera — scored (home)1.2
Union La Calera — conceded (home)1.07
D. La Serena — scored (away)1
D. La Serena — conceded (away)1.87
Model expected combined goals2.67
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Union La Calera — BTTS matches (home)40%
D. La Serena — BTTS matches (away)80%
Combined (simple average)60%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.587%
Under 4.513%
Over 5.577%
Under 5.523%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.547%
Under 7.553%
Over 8.544%
Under 8.556%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union La Calera (home)
Corners for4.3
Corners against3.2
D. La Serena (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union La Calera
7
7
6
8
11
D. La Serena
3
13
11
12
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Union La Calera (home)
For2.6
D. La Serena (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Union La Calera — total shots (home)11.6
D. La Serena — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Union La Calera — on target (home)3.4
D. La Serena — on target (away)4.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union La Calera
Inside the box5.57
Outside the box4.23
D. La Serena
Inside the box6.23
Outside the box6.83
Player Shots Union La Calera
S. Sáez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Benegas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ignacio Mesías
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
C. Insaurralde
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Encinas
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots D. La Serena
J. Vargas
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target32%
Á. Henríquez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target20%
G. Jara
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Ovando
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union La Calera xG (home)1.05
D. La Serena xG (away)1.19
Average Possession
49.03%
Possession
45.97%
Team Comparison Union La Calera vs D. La Serena
76.73%
Pass accuracy
76.53%
383.4
Passes per match
341.27
0
Goals prevented
0
11.5
Fouls committed
11.8
2.76
Goalkeeper saves
3.07
1.74
Offsides
1.55
15.45
Tackles per match
14.53
League average xG this season is 1.45 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union La Calera vs D. La Serena prediction analysis
Review Union La Calera vs D. La Serena with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera División.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights