Prediction Analysis: Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional
Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-09-21
21:10
Union Magdalena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Atletico Nacional
Away
Prediction Summary
1
29%
X
27%
2
44%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Union Magdalena (Home)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%
Atletico Nacional (Away)
Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.23
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union Magdalena
WLLLW
Atletico Nacional
LWLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
73%
37%
+1.5
42%
16%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
58%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.
Union Magdalena averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Atletico Nacional averages 1.38 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
29%
Draw
27%
Away Win
44%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 2
Sep 2025
Union Magdalena
1 - 2
Atletico Nacional
Away
Apr 2025
Union Magdalena(A)
0 - 1
Atletico Nacional
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Union Magdalena won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Union Magdalena — unbeaten run (home)1
Union Magdalena — scoring streak (home)1
Atletico Nacional — winless run (away)4
Atletico Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union Magdalena Win (1)29%
Draw (X)27%
Atletico Nacional Win (2)44%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
73%
37%
+1.5
42%
16%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
27%
63%
-1.5
58%
84%
-2.5
85%
100%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union Magdalena — scored (home)1.16
Union Magdalena — conceded (home)1.37
Atletico Nacional — scored (away)1.38
Atletico Nacional — conceded (away)1.23
Model expected combined goals2.39
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Union Magdalena — BTTS matches (home)58%
Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)61.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.570%
Under 6.530%
Over 7.560%
Under 7.540%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.528%
Under 9.572%
Over 10.524%
Under 10.576%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union Magdalena (home)
Corners for3.8
Corners against3.6
Atletico Nacional (away)
Corners for5.3
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union Magdalena
3
14
12
11
10
Atletico Nacional
12
8
9
3
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Union Magdalena (home)
For3.1
Atletico Nacional (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Union Magdalena — total shots (home)14.1
Atletico Nacional — total shots (away)13.8
Shots on Target
Union Magdalena — on target (home)4.1
Atletico Nacional — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union Magdalena
Inside the box5.77
Outside the box5.72
Atletico Nacional
Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02
Player Shots Union Magdalena
R. Márquez
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Blanco
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Iguaran
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
O. Aragon
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Atletico Nacional
A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Magdalena xG (home)1.16
Atletico Nacional xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
45.9%
Possession
56.51%
Team Comparison Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional
75.59%
Pass accuracy
83.69%
333
Passes per match
411.63
0
Goals prevented
0
13.13
Fouls committed
11.51
3.18
Goalkeeper saves
2.59
1.74
Offsides
1.7
13.23
Tackles per match
10.58
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional prediction analysis
Review Union Magdalena vs Atletico Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights