Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Union Magdalena vs Chico

Union Magdalena vs Chico prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-03-16 21:10
Union Magdalena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
29%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Chico
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
31%
2
24%
Under 2.5
71%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Union Magdalena (Home)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Chico (Away)

Goals scored / match0.6
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Union Magdalena
WLLLW
Chico
LLLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 45%
37% +1.5 15%
16% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 29%. Model confidence is High.

Union Magdalena averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Chico averages 0.6 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
31%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
29%
BTTS Yes
36%

Head-to-Head last 2

Aug 2025 Union Magdalena(A) 0 - 1 Chico Away
Mar 2025 Union Magdalena 1 - 1 Chico Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Union Magdalena won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Union Magdalena — unbeaten run (home)1
Union Magdalena — scoring streak (home)1
Chico — winless run (away)1
Chico — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Union Magdalena Win (1)44%
Draw (X)31%
Chico Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 45%
37% +1.5 15%
16% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 55%
63% -1.5 85%
84% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Union Magdalena vs Chico — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Union Magdalena — scored (home)1.16
Union Magdalena — conceded (home)1.37
Chico — scored (away)0.6
Chico — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals1.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes36%
No64%

Rate per Team

Union Magdalena — BTTS matches (home)58%
Chico — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)46.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.564%
Under 6.536%
Over 7.549%
Under 7.551%
Over 8.541%
Under 8.559%
Over 9.528%
Under 9.572%
Over 10.516%
Under 10.584%
Expected total corners (blended average)7.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Union Magdalena (home)

Corners for3.8
Corners against3.6

Chico (away)

Corners for2.3
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Union Magdalena
3 14 12 11 10
Chico
5 4 7 10 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Union Magdalena (home)

For3.1

Chico (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Union Magdalena — total shots (home)14.1
Chico — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

Union Magdalena — on target (home)4.1
Chico — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Union Magdalena

Inside the box5.77
Outside the box5.72

Chico

Inside the box4.88
Outside the box5.28

Player Shots Union Magdalena

R. Márquez
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Blanco
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Iguaran
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
O. Aragon
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Chico

Hassan Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
J. Molina
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Banguero
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Arango
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Bocanegra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Magdalena xG (home)1.16
Chico xG (away)1.02

Average Possession

45.9% Possession 47.6%

Team Comparison Union Magdalena vs Chico

75.59% Pass accuracy 77.73%
333 Passes per match 328.68
0 Goals prevented 0
13.13 Fouls committed 11.03
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 3.05
1.74 Offsides 1.68
13.23 Tackles per match 10.13

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Union Magdalena vs Chico prediction analysis

Review Union Magdalena vs Chico with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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