Prediction Analysis: Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto
Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-08-07
23:00
Union Magdalena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
29%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Deportivo Pasto
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
32%
2
33%
Under 2.5
71%
BTTS No
63%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Union Magdalena (Home)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%
Deportivo Pasto (Away)
Goals scored / match0.55
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%
Team Form last 5 matches
Union Magdalena
WLLLW
Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
45%
37%
+1.5
10%
16%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
58%
BTTS
40%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 29%. Model confidence is High.
Union Magdalena averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Deportivo Pasto averages 0.55 goals scored away.
Model Strength
71%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
32%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
29%
BTTS Yes
37%
Head-to-Head last 2
Aug 2025
Union Magdalena
1 - 1
Deportivo Pasto
Draw
Feb 2025
Union Magdalena(A)
1 - 2
Deportivo Pasto
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Union Magdalena won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Union Magdalena — unbeaten run (home)1
Union Magdalena — scoring streak (home)1
Deportivo Pasto — winless run (away)17
Deportivo Pasto — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Union Magdalena Win (1)35%
Draw (X)32%
Deportivo Pasto Win (2)33%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
45%
37%
+1.5
10%
16%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
55%
63%
-1.5
90%
84%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Union Magdalena — scored (home)1.16
Union Magdalena — conceded (home)1.37
Deportivo Pasto — scored (away)0.55
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (away)1.35
Model expected combined goals1.86
Both Teams To Score
Yes37%
No63%
Rate per Team
Union Magdalena — BTTS matches (home)58%
Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)49%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.572%
Under 6.528%
Over 7.551%
Under 7.549%
Over 8.549%
Under 8.551%
Over 9.536%
Under 9.564%
Over 10.526%
Under 10.574%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Union Magdalena (home)
Corners for3.8
Corners against3.6
Deportivo Pasto (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Union Magdalena
3
14
12
11
10
Deportivo Pasto
7
16
11
5
4
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Union Magdalena (home)
For3.1
Deportivo Pasto (away)
For3.7
Shots per Game
Union Magdalena — total shots (home)14.1
Deportivo Pasto — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Union Magdalena — on target (home)4.1
Deportivo Pasto — on target (away)3.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Union Magdalena
Inside the box5.77
Outside the box5.72
Deportivo Pasto
Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6
Player Shots Union Magdalena
R. Márquez
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Blanco
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Iguaran
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
O. Aragon
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Deportivo Pasto
Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Magdalena xG (home)1.16
Deportivo Pasto xG (away)0.98
Average Possession
45.9%
Possession
43.55%
Team Comparison Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto
75.59%
Pass accuracy
78.88%
333
Passes per match
317.15
0
Goals prevented
0
13.13
Fouls committed
13.58
3.18
Goalkeeper saves
2.55
1.74
Offsides
1.58
13.23
Tackles per match
12.18
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto prediction analysis
Review Union Magdalena vs Deportivo Pasto with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights