Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Union Magdalena vs Millonarios

Union Magdalena vs Millonarios prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-02-20 23:30
Union Magdalena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Millonarios
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
27%
2
38%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Union Magdalena (Home)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Millonarios (Away)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Team Form last 5 matches

Union Magdalena
WLLLW
Millonarios
WDDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 74%
37% +1.5 39%
16% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 48%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Low.

Union Magdalena averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Millonarios averages 1.17 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
27%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 2

Aug 2025 Union Magdalena(A) 2 - 1 Millonarios Home
Feb 2025 Union Magdalena 1 - 3 Millonarios Away

In the last 2 meetings, Union Magdalena won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Union Magdalena — unbeaten run (home)1
Union Magdalena — scoring streak (home)1
Millonarios — winless run (away)0
Millonarios — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Union Magdalena Win (1)35%
Draw (X)27%
Millonarios Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 74%
37% +1.5 39%
16% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 26%
63% -1.5 61%
84% -2.5 96%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Union Magdalena vs Millonarios — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Union Magdalena — scored (home)1.16
Union Magdalena — conceded (home)1.37
Millonarios — scored (away)1.17
Millonarios — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals2.48

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Union Magdalena — BTTS matches (home)58%
Millonarios — BTTS matches (away)48%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.578%
Under 5.522%
Over 6.564%
Under 6.536%
Over 7.545%
Under 7.555%
Over 8.539%
Under 8.561%
Over 9.526%
Under 9.574%
Over 10.521%
Under 10.579%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Union Magdalena (home)

Corners for3.8
Corners against3.6

Millonarios (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Union Magdalena
3 14 12 11 10
Millonarios
10 6 14 6 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Union Magdalena (home)

For3.1

Millonarios (away)

For3.5

Shots per Game

Union Magdalena — total shots (home)14.1
Millonarios — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Union Magdalena — on target (home)4.1
Millonarios — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Union Magdalena

Inside the box5.77
Outside the box5.72

Millonarios

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box6.74

Player Shots Union Magdalena

R. Márquez
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Blanco
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Iguaran
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
O. Aragon
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Millonarios

Beckham Castro
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Cabezas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Falcao
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target26%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Magdalena xG (home)1.16
Millonarios xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

45.9% Possession 51.83%

Team Comparison Union Magdalena vs Millonarios

75.59% Pass accuracy 80.8%
333 Passes per match 372.59
0 Goals prevented 0
13.13 Fouls committed 11.65
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 2.78
1.74 Offsides 1.8
13.23 Tackles per match 13.87

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Union Magdalena vs Millonarios prediction analysis

Review Union Magdalena vs Millonarios with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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