Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe

Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-03-30 22:45
Union Magdalena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Santa Fe
Away

Prediction Summary

1
24%
X
27%
2
49%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Union Magdalena (Home)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Santa Fe (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Union Magdalena
WLLLW
Santa Fe
DWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 70%
37% +1.5 33%
16% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%
58% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Union Magdalena averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Santa Fe averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
24%
Draw
27%
Away Win
49%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 2

Sep 2025 Union Magdalena(A) 0 - 2 Santa Fe Away
Mar 2025 Union Magdalena 0 - 1 Santa Fe Away

In the last 2 meetings, Union Magdalena won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Union Magdalena — unbeaten run (home)1
Union Magdalena — scoring streak (home)1
Santa Fe — winless run (away)0
Santa Fe — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Union Magdalena Win (1)24%
Draw (X)27%
Santa Fe Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 70%
37% +1.5 33%
16% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 30%
63% -1.5 67%
84% -2.5 96%
100% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 96%

Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Union Magdalena — scored (home)1.16
Union Magdalena — conceded (home)1.37
Santa Fe — scored (away)1.22
Santa Fe — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Union Magdalena — BTTS matches (home)58%
Santa Fe — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.572%
Under 6.528%
Over 7.561%
Under 7.539%
Over 8.549%
Under 8.551%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.525%
Under 10.575%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Union Magdalena (home)

Corners for3.8
Corners against3.6

Santa Fe (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Union Magdalena
3 14 12 11 10
Santa Fe
6 8 8 12 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Union Magdalena (home)

For3.1

Santa Fe (away)

For3.4

Shots per Game

Union Magdalena — total shots (home)14.1
Santa Fe — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Union Magdalena — on target (home)4.1
Santa Fe — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Union Magdalena

Inside the box5.77
Outside the box5.72

Santa Fe

Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44

Player Shots Union Magdalena

R. Márquez
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target8%
R. Blanco
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Iguaran
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%
O. Aragon
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Santa Fe

H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Magdalena xG (home)1.16
Santa Fe xG (away)1.08

Average Possession

45.9% Possession 48.19%

Team Comparison Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe

75.59% Pass accuracy 77.09%
333 Passes per match 334.04
0 Goals prevented 0
13.13 Fouls committed 11.52
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 3.46
1.74 Offsides 1.38
13.23 Tackles per match 10.54

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe prediction analysis

Review Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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